Friday, May 12, 2006
Additional tech shorts....
XLNX, LXK, BE, MU and FLEX--now these name offer a better entry point for a short in Tech.
Diatribe on Disipline---Short the weak
Short the weak: a theme that keeps on teaching.
Now that the weak are really weak be patiance and short on stregth.-- It is only natural for names beaten up 3 days in a row to recover.
Can't lose sight of these intermidate-term shorts: RIMM, JNPR, JBL, AMD...etc...
Look bottomline: a quote station and up to the minute news it is all a "slot machine"
We want to hit 20-30% gains not the 1.5% - 3.5 % gains.-- so stress on quality ideas. Forget this one day trash...i am just not good enough for that.
example: NVDA short was a theme not a day -trade idea. I messed it up.
So timeframe is the battle here. we get shook out of trades why???
* Hype: created by News and Trading violtility....that game is for belivers of luck and/ or really special timely trades.
Now that the weak are really weak be patiance and short on stregth.-- It is only natural for names beaten up 3 days in a row to recover.
Can't lose sight of these intermidate-term shorts: RIMM, JNPR, JBL, AMD...etc...
Look bottomline: a quote station and up to the minute news it is all a "slot machine"
We want to hit 20-30% gains not the 1.5% - 3.5 % gains.-- so stress on quality ideas. Forget this one day trash...i am just not good enough for that.
example: NVDA short was a theme not a day -trade idea. I messed it up.
So timeframe is the battle here. we get shook out of trades why???
* Hype: created by News and Trading violtility....that game is for belivers of luck and/ or really special timely trades.
Intermidate-term ideas (long/short) may 12
Intermediate-term Long Ideas
PETM: continues to work add on pullbacks using the 24-32 range.- strong volume building.
SPLS: Solid uptrend intact ..add on any pullbacks. Early signs of leaderhip charactersitcs.
AQNT: attempting to hold in but choppy near-term trading action.
Intermidate-term Short Ideas:
BEN: short in tact between 90-80 range. Asset Manager have had a huge surge in the last 3+ year and near-term have shown weakness....would trade around this short. (recent range $104-90)
TEVA: a short worth adding to on any stregth. Strong volume break down ...setting up for intermidate-term weakness. Further correction to continue. (45-37) WDC: short: 21.43 resitance using support around 18. and Add to short if breakdown below 18. ($24-18 range).
BRCM: A short worth comming back to as it is reaching overdone levels. Add to short on any stregth. ($50-36 range correction).
RIMM: $90-70 range offered a great short oppertunity. watch closer to $70 for potenaial bounce but intermidate-term momentum slowing.
not timely here but watch and add.
JNPR: support around the 16 level, 6 month downtrend continues. a range of $24-17. --not timely here but watch and add.
JBL: Recent range of $43-37 range.-- add on any weakness to the investment shorts. ---not timely here but watch and add.
AMD: $42-30 recent range on any streght come back to the short. Add more to short postion if a break below $29.97
PETM: continues to work add on pullbacks using the 24-32 range.- strong volume building.
SPLS: Solid uptrend intact ..add on any pullbacks. Early signs of leaderhip charactersitcs.
AQNT: attempting to hold in but choppy near-term trading action.
Intermidate-term Short Ideas:
BEN: short in tact between 90-80 range. Asset Manager have had a huge surge in the last 3+ year and near-term have shown weakness....would trade around this short. (recent range $104-90)
TEVA: a short worth adding to on any stregth. Strong volume break down ...setting up for intermidate-term weakness. Further correction to continue. (45-37) WDC: short: 21.43 resitance using support around 18. and Add to short if breakdown below 18. ($24-18 range).
BRCM: A short worth comming back to as it is reaching overdone levels. Add to short on any stregth. ($50-36 range correction).
RIMM: $90-70 range offered a great short oppertunity. watch closer to $70 for potenaial bounce but intermidate-term momentum slowing.
not timely here but watch and add.
JNPR: support around the 16 level, 6 month downtrend continues. a range of $24-17. --not timely here but watch and add.
JBL: Recent range of $43-37 range.-- add on any weakness to the investment shorts. ---not timely here but watch and add.
AMD: $42-30 recent range on any streght come back to the short. Add more to short postion if a break below $29.97
Thursday, May 11, 2006
Themes and Market Thoughts 5-11-2006
THEMES TO SHORT :Homebuilders (CTX), REITS (KRC) and select Restaurants (DRI).
Recent Observation:
It has been a difficult bet to short leaders as clearly seen recently. For example in the deep cyclical (industrials, Basic Material and Energy) names like TIE -- as it continues to run and tech like NVDA and WFR not as a crazy run like metal related names but still remains extended.
Investing: (Ideas for 2+ Q)
Media: I hate to be such the value guy but just reporting the facts: CMCSA, (CVC) TRB --some names that have shown life and NYT-- as a recovery name. This is a contrarian ben grahm type of investing but again I rather bet against professional and masses. (Simple attractiveness based on 3+ year of underperformance),
Healtcare is a great area to explore: LLY and BMY. Biotech not getting "any love" recently but while large cap pahrama attempts to bottom. BMET- another name to consider and in small cap MRX.
Staples:
SLE-- despite bad earnings held in a value like play maybe not as beneficial for you.
Basic Material: NON HARD METAL LONG IDEAS: WPP, MOS in the paper related area and DOW and DD other underper to consider in a strong cyclical
Agriculture related themes : PEIX, ADM
Industrials:
Educational stocks like APOL in Large Cap and STRA in small cap.
Recent Observation:
It has been a difficult bet to short leaders as clearly seen recently. For example in the deep cyclical (industrials, Basic Material and Energy) names like TIE -- as it continues to run and tech like NVDA and WFR not as a crazy run like metal related names but still remains extended.
Investing: (Ideas for 2+ Q)
Media: I hate to be such the value guy but just reporting the facts: CMCSA, (CVC) TRB --some names that have shown life and NYT-- as a recovery name. This is a contrarian ben grahm type of investing but again I rather bet against professional and masses. (Simple attractiveness based on 3+ year of underperformance),
Healtcare is a great area to explore: LLY and BMY. Biotech not getting "any love" recently but while large cap pahrama attempts to bottom. BMET- another name to consider and in small cap MRX.
Staples:
SLE-- despite bad earnings held in a value like play maybe not as beneficial for you.
Basic Material: NON HARD METAL LONG IDEAS: WPP, MOS in the paper related area and DOW and DD other underper to consider in a strong cyclical
Agriculture related themes : PEIX, ADM
Industrials:
Educational stocks like APOL in Large Cap and STRA in small cap.
Healthcare 5-11-2006
Attractive long ideas : FSH, EYE, CELG, BAX, RMD, BCR, HLTH, HCR, WOOF, BDX, DP, GPRO, IMCL, KOSP and BMET.
A challenging task to identify a theme in Healthcare as continues to appears to be a stock pickers sector.
Appears to be a wise strategy to stay out of the following groups: (until a timely turn takes place).
Instruments: BSX, MDT and STJ.
Hospitals: AHG, HMA, HLSH, THC, TRI
Majority of Biotech: AMLN, MEDI, PDLI
HMO: AET, HUM, WLP==> have been correcting but might be worthwhile selling into near-term strength.
Add to pharma: AZN, GSK, BMY, SGP -- Perhaps one theme that is might have a homogenous behavior.
Medical Products: BAX and BDX.
Names to consider for Growth Manager[ in the Russell 1000: DADE, BMY, FSH, RMD, WOOF, GPRO. (please note there are few drug names in the Russell 1000 HC Growth). So for those interested in being long the drugs over biotech there are few options.
A challenging task to identify a theme in Healthcare as continues to appears to be a stock pickers sector.
Appears to be a wise strategy to stay out of the following groups: (until a timely turn takes place).
Instruments: BSX, MDT and STJ.
Hospitals: AHG, HMA, HLSH, THC, TRI
Majority of Biotech: AMLN, MEDI, PDLI
HMO: AET, HUM, WLP==> have been correcting but might be worthwhile selling into near-term strength.
Add to pharma: AZN, GSK, BMY, SGP -- Perhaps one theme that is might have a homogenous behavior.
Medical Products: BAX and BDX.
Names to consider for Growth Manager[ in the Russell 1000: DADE, BMY, FSH, RMD, WOOF, GPRO. (please note there are few drug names in the Russell 1000 HC Growth). So for those interested in being long the drugs over biotech there are few options.
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