Friday, October 13, 2006

PALM- (trade revisited)


PALM: Bouncing off strong support around $14. Apparent buyers when stock trades $12-14 range -- a level that has offered buying opportunity. This is exhibited in the weekly chart coinciding with a bottoming momentum.
Above $14, stock remains attractive given recent correction and heavy sell-off from April highs of $24. Despite broad technology rally and competitors RIMM exceptional upside move - PALM clearly lagged the sector but showing a bottoming signal.
Street appears too bearish on this name. -And there is opportunity from what appears to be over pessimism. 7 buys/ 8 holds/ 2 sells -
Company has : No debt and $4.82 excess cash, and upcoming buyback of $250mil.
Extreme oversold reading in the weekly data presents an attractive opportunity a long position.

Sunday, October 08, 2006

Avaya: Worth a look


Although, CSCO –gets the front cover and positive mention on Barrons; I have noticed AV on the positive momentum list.

In the same article the following was mentioned on AV.

Sticking to the discipline: Positive weekly momentum and a breakout from recent range make this name attractive.

Building momentum given the fundamental action on this group. Not fresh or timely idea as a trade here but actionable on pullbacks.

Worth adding to a watch list. postive above $10- use as exit....but for longer-term investors actionable.

All this said , same goes for csco - the leader in the group.

DD: attractive basing pattern

DD: Since 2000 stock trades in a narrow range between $50-40.

Aattractive consolidation pattern: suggesting a favorable odds for a pending breakout above $50. An upside move above $50 can trigger upside momentum.

Longer-term bet and might carry an opportunity cost of capital. A set up for an attractive reward given an emerging cyclical theme. (Chemicals and other large cap basic materials/industrials).

Near-term entry point: after a run up from $40-44--- not timely but at early stages of recovery. Not a trade but a 3-6 months play with an exit at $40.

fundamentals outlook: lower raw material costs and higher average prices will offset softening demand, and also thinks the stock is modestly undervalued. **JP Morgan comments**

I also like this name because of a value like approach and nice to have those names in the portfolio in an uncertain / less trending market.