Lesson learnt and further confusion ahead

Lesson learnt and further confusion ahead:

Quick summary: Looking ahead to second half opportunities, retail shorts, healthcare longs, macro influences and myths.

Equity Thoughts:

Given the elevated levels at current conditions, one has to readjust second half expectations. At this point, there are areas to add on pullbacks. In revising the 2007 thesis, I like communication, media, networkers and telco. Also, healthcare is an interesting play that can create upside potential with sustainability. As sated last week, there are opportunities in Healthcare – Continue to favor XLV. Consumer offers few trades, mainly focused on the short side.

So sticking with risk/reward here are few points.

Reits: RWR: Wilshire Reits index: Stalling since mid February and struggling to recover. Least favorite REITS include, SPG, BXP, HST and VNO. From a cycle perspective, a strong run and setting up for a sharper correction.

Retail: Continue to watch FDO as it faces heavy resistance around the $33 level. Following recent recovery stock is vulnerable despite net positive analyst view.

Other names to watch as short candidates --KSS, SHLD and TJX.

Healthcare: In terms of large cap names: AMGN, BMY and MRK – monitor for second half long ideas and enter on pending pullbacks.

Insurance: another area to consider given its recent pullbacks. – Specifically, the group has underperformed the S&P 500. An area to add, especially relative to other groups in financials.

Technology: Semi’s- AMD – deeply oversold with support at $15. It has been a value trap before but interesting comments from NVDA’s managment.

We are seeing the sell-through of AMD processors picking up significantly in this channel, and I am sure many of you see that as well. And it reflects the fact that it's replenished the channel with Athlon processors. It is now price positioned in the right place and it’s a great product. There is no reason why it went so, and so we are expecting the pick up again.

Chart attached below.

Energy: XLE- uptrend remains intact, strong run up in the past two months. Next resistance of 243.97 – May 4^th highs. OSX long –term strength continues- One can trim on pullbacks but above 180 – the long term cycle is intact.

Macro/Levels:

Crude: Key resistance at $66 level –momentum slowing. Range forming $62-66 levels. Expect down/pause action in the near-term.

10 year yield: Intermediate-term trading range between the 4.40-4.80 level. In recent near-term trading there is a close range 4.62 and 4.68. Lets not lose focus on the uptrend that started 4.00

DXY-Dollar index: Recovering from April 27 lows of $81.26. Next near-term resistance closer to $83. As stated before, I am expecting further recovery from deeply oversold levels.

Gold: Near-term downtrend continues with further correction from overbought levels. Next support rests around the 660 level with a momentum attempting to bottom. At early stages of a pair trade with declining gold and recovering dollar.

Commentary:

Despite growing bearish sentiment due to extended markets – the upside move has paid off for those who stayed long. Especially, a differentiated view from consensus. A study showed that 60% of individual investors were expecting a recession. Such a high number versus other periods and more than institutional participants. A lesson learned but does not deny the overbought levels.

Clearly, this “extended” market just keeps going higher as many don’t want to admit mistakes. Interestingly, the growing bearish sentiment has driven an increase into money market funds. With fewer participants in equity market, the market keeps going higher without the influence of net bearish “pundits”. Lets not confuse traders with media. The first quarter displayed the disconnect between noise and actual data.

From a macro level, oil stalled at $65 range, econ-talk is interpreted as positive news for markets, and overall net positive earnings. Important to watch a recovery in the dollar, 10 year yield behavior and cooling of emerging markets. Regardless, the simple question is profit taking versus adding on pullbacks. A global perspective offers the building bubble of credit and increase in major asset classes. Although, not actionable these points are accepted and as close to reality.

Group Ideas and Equity market review

Equity Markets: Supply of stocks in the marketplace continues to shrink. This week contributed to that theme as we saw further M&A announcements and takeout speculations. Also, better than expected earnings contribute to positive market action. This leads to additional buying or more of less compelling reason to sell.

Argument for an “overbought” market over recent weeks has left many wondering or giving up. SPX remains extended and poised for a pause around 1500. Given stabilizing geopolitical risks, neutral Fed stance and non-outrageous oil prices –these factors have been favorable for the markets.

In terms of stock behavior, an impressive rally (new highs) with consensus bullish agreement. Complacency can be a near-term concern, as the pull/call ratio retraced from overly bearish levels in February. Since 2005, we continue to make new highs according to NASDAQ new highs/lows data. This clearly coincides with the behavior of the most groups as participation across the board. Therefore, a very bullish run and euphoric self fulfilling upside move.

Dollar: On the radar once again. Same message as the last few weeks. Remains oversold and poised for a short-term recovery.

Gold: Approaching April 20^th highs of 691.40. A key resistance level while the all time highs remain at 725 reached last May. Expecting pullbacks in the near-term, even if Gold makes new highs for the year. Intermediate-term data appears stretched.

Yields: 10 year continues to trade in a close range between 4.60-4.80. Taking a step back, the uptrend remains intact since July lows of 4.00. Looking for further consolidation with an upside bias.

Crude: Near-term stretched with heavy resistance at $65 level. At this point, looking for a consolidation back to the $60 range.

Econ: Interpretation of markets remain positive but not clear if majority bulls understand or rank data outcomes towards decision making. Plenty of revised numbers, unclear interpretation and political related factors which are difficult to decipher. Federal Reserve developing a plan to control inflation.

GROUPS:

XBD: Broker/Dealer Index – recovering back to key resistance level of 259.23. Despite weak first quarter, the group has recovered previous losses and currently attempting to breakout. Watch resistance levels as indication of buyers or interest in this segment of the financials stocks.

In financials, REITS continue to make new highs and are elevated in the current cycle. It is difficult to deny the positive trend but from a cycle perspective, the group does not offer attractive entry points. Note: Dow Jones REIT index, has failed to recover back to February 2007 highs. It illustrates that buyers are staying on the sidelines and momentum is waning.

Stock Specific: vulnerable REITS: SPG: Watch the 115-110 range where momentum is slowing. BXP: Stalling 120-115 range with consistent low volume. HST: Slowing momentum with support level at $25. VNO: Attempting to breakdown around the 120 level.

Retail: RLX- Index pausing at current levels with two key resistance levels. First, 530 followed by 538.53 (Feb 20 highs). Failing to make new highs and displays vulnerability across the sector. Similar chart profile is seen in PMR (Dynamic Retail Portfolio). For example, KSS –sharp decline, SHLD- broke down, TJX –downtrend in tact.

Actionable Idea in the near-term

Family Dollar -FDO: Back to heavy resistance at $33. Double top to previous highs with weak momentum.

Groups/Stocks:

Technology: Few interesting charts: NVT-attempting to bottom, OTEX- uptrend intact, ULTI-positive uptrend since mid 2006, SMSI-consolidating around $14 and FLIR-on pullbacks.

Biotech: Continues to work and a strong run in the past two months. A stock specific play in general. Looking for pullbacks as opportunity to add. Stock speicifc names include: MYGN, ABI and TECH.

Healthcare Review: First quarter 2007, has seen a breakout in healthcare. Especially, pharma an area which has underperformed in recent market cycle. XLV- healthcare etf broke out recently. Chart attached below. (click to enlarge).

AMGN: Attempting to bottom while it remains oversold. Accumulate closer to $60.

BMY: Add on pullbacks closer to $29 range.

MRK: Among the top weights in the sector, MRK has established its leadership and that stands out.

Here are the top weights in the S&P healthcare.

	Name	Symbol	Index Weight
1	Pfizer Inc.	PFE	11.65%
2	JOHNSON & JOHNSON	JNJ	11.33%
3	Merck & Co. Inc.	MRK	6.83%
4	WYETH	WYE	4.69%
5	ABBOTT LABORATORIES	ABT	4.63%
6	Amgen Inc.	AMGN	4.52%
7	UnitedHealth Group Inc.	UNH	4.44%
8	Medtronic Inc.	MDT	3.77%
9	Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.	BMY	3.70%
10	Eli Lilly & Co.	LLY	3.57%

Macro Review -

Dollar: Looking for further recovery in the dollar --- especially at these oversold levels. Clearly, since last week, the dollar continues its weakness and remains a headline material. There are few US companies, mainly large cap which benefit on weakness of USD. The weak dollar policy has been implemented since 2002 and nearing a trend shift.

Gold: Facing resistance closer to May 2006 highs. Also, the gap between gold vs. dollar is widening. (Stronger gold / weaker dollar). This serves as an additional positive catalyst for dollar recovery.

Yields: US 10 yr- Further consolidation between a tight range of 4.40 -4.80. A waning momentum since mid July 2006 – as markets anticipated future rate hikes.

Crude: At this point, $68 remains a key resistance level. OIH strength is noteworthy as it approaches May 12 highs of 169.75. Surprisingly, following a sluggish start to the year, crude/energy related stocks continue to move higher.

Econ: Inflation, is not only in the US but globally continues to rise. The issue at hand is if markets are recognizing or looking past the issue. I continue to believe, outside of inflation, rates and liquidity risk as a threat to equity markets in the near-term. Overall, discussion of slowing economy and potential recession is on the table. Again, another lesson illustrating disconnect between the economy vs. stock market.

Markets:

Bottoms-up approach is a wiser move here given a broad market rise, as earnings season settles. Regardless, it’s hard to deny the strength of the broad markets. Positive signals seen across various sectors. I would take time to rotate into technology and healthcare groups as cycle favorites. Euphoric market highs continue but watching closely for panic selling in the near-term.

Groups:

Biotech: Attractive theme. Check out BBH index as a group indicator. AMGN- despite we start of the year caused on an overall drag to the index. At the same time, the group underperformed since October 2006.

Long Ideas:

ABI – offers entry point opportunity at current levels.

TECH- working, DNA- stabilization around the $80-82 range and AMGN-back to $63 level at previous support levels.

Sharing markets thoughts --4/19/2007

Sharing markets thoughts --4/19/2007

As the earnings season is upon us ....very difficult to make broad market statements. It is critical to have an understanding of Macro and Cycle trends. In the current environment, it is highly worthwhile to seek quality ideas in equities, (Top 5 names revisited from earlier this year) given the uncertain economic and credit picture. Also, one should look beyond earnings and decomposing macro themes into relevant actions.

Recovery in Dollar?: USD – is deeply oversold and plenty of headlines outline the weakness of the dollar relative to other currencies. Charts suggest to me, that a recovery bet is fairly attractive. In the near-term, I like a USD recovery corresponding with market and commodity correction. Chart attached below.

Weak/Neutral Gold: Long-term trend in tact but near-term breather needed. Commodities overall are extended.

Near-term extended Equity Market:

Continuing to focus on the macro’s as a guide for equity trading. Higher beta names have soared in recent recoveries. A weak dollar has driven equity markets higher. At this point, I am looking at reversion of the mean. (short equities/long dollar - A near-term trading idea).

Markets for the most part remain overbought in the near-term. Although, the positive trend is intact, don’t offer attractive entry points. From a cycle perspective, markets do need a breather following the bullish environment since 2003. But also, we have recovered and surpassed May 2006 highs. Certainly, bullish trend is in tact and next resistance is 2000 highs. That said, it is not an attractive entry point in broad market entry point.

Put/Call Ratio: Despite the environment that feels too bearish post housing slowdown, market participants are not too bearish according to this indicator. Pessimism is not at an extreme. This showcases that not an ideal entry point. Especially for a market that continues to edge higher.

Favorable Groups: Defensive themes that continue to produce cash flow. Importantly, from a cycle view – previous underperformance such as US technology, Pharma and Media are poised for recovery. As an example check out these five ideas that touch on attractive groups and via a stock specific play.

Five favorite stocks in 2007: GMST, SWY, LLY, TLAB and CRA. (Deatail Wirte up below)

http://markettakers.blogspot.com/2007_02_04_archive.html

Vulnerable Groups:

The weak part of the market is clearly in financials where credit risk is very difficult to ignore. Watching strength in those areas as opportunity to short. There is a takeout risk in many lender names. At times, rumors are just noise but a buyout risk is on the table.

XLF: ( AMEX Financial Index) Major upside ceiling at 37/38 range. Around those levels, looking to add short positions. Clearly, XLF since 2003 demonstrates a huge run up in a low rate environment.

Further Wisdom:

The risks for U.S. financial markets are not limited to the aftershocks of the mortgage earthquake. The massive foreign currency mismatch evident in the carry trade loans remains an overhanging danger to financial markets. Borrowing in one currency to invest in risky assets denominated in another currency is a sure way to ultimately destroy wealth. Gold is perhaps the only insurance against the financial agony to come from unwinding of the carry trade loans, and two decades of monetary mismanagement. (Safeheaven.com).

Managing controllable Risks: Inflation, Entry points in Biotech and Media.

FACTORS TRIGGRING MARKET DIRECTIONS:

Last summer markets anticipated a rate cut by the Federal reserve. At that time, the equity markets were oversold and 10 yr yield peaked on June 28, 2006 (5.75%). Of course, SPX rallied and began a strong uptrend on the back half of 2006. Today, markets are stretched and the 10 year yield stands at 4.76%.

It is becoming evident that previous interest rate assumptions are incorrect. It was a consensus view to anticipate rate cuts for the first half in of 2007. Clearly, that is not the case and there is a growing confusion in the interpretation of Fed’s message. Now that the equity markets are extended this macro uncertainty can highly contribute towards further fear. Inflation expectation is one key macro uncertainly which can ignite a downside panic. The possibility of a Fed rate hike is not out of the equation. As that fact becomes accepted by consensus that can have a troubling downside surprise.

Bottom-line: Inflation is a concern despite the calming language of the Federal Reserve. Consensus is underestimating inflation fears. The tone of the federal reserve illustrates the disconnect between expectations and reality.

Levels: SPX approaching resistance at 1461. I would use the 50 day mva as first support at 1426. Downside pressure on overbought momentum and its far removed from 200 day mva. Overall, looking for one more downside view.

Currency factor – recently there is a strong correlation between US Equity markets and Japanese currency behavior. In May 2006 – the market peaked driven by liquidity factors including rising rates in Japan. The peak caused sharp declines in the broad markets. Especially in the following areas: emerging markets, commodity and housing related.

Credit Risk: The self/defeating financial concerns:

Plenty of focus on econ data and upcoming earnings. Finally, the street is recognizing that the real estate concerns have not fully materialized. Again, lenders such as FED, CFC and BKUNA are few names that are at fundamental risk while currently offer a timely entry point.

Broad markets are overbought in the near-term, and financials appear to be the most vulnerable area. I rather trim profits or enter into ‘fresh’ shorts. (Especially in Financials). Brokers (XBD), Banks (BKX) and Insurance (KIX) indexes are overbought and remain fundamentally vulnerable. For several weeks, REITS appear extended as well. Maybe 1-2 quarters early but richly priced. Again, I sense one more downside to shakeout pessimists. This further illustrates credit risk which also seen in growing private equity and other sheer optimism of current environment.

Biotech: Attactive theme. Check out BBH index as a group indicator. AMGN- damage at the start of the year caused on an overall drag to the index. At the same time, the group underperformed since October.

Long Ideas: ABI, TECH, DNA and AMGN.

Media Review: Again continue to like the group as stated many times before. Last week focus on CMCSA- worked out triggered by positive news. Recent breakouts by TWX, DTV, VCLK and MCCC suggest early signs of strength and technical breakouts.

Long Ideas: CBS, IPG and CMCSA.

CBS: Facing near-term resistance around $32 but attractive on additional pullbacks. I am a buyer closer to the $28 range.

IPG: Multi-year trading range between $10-16 ranges. Poised for a recovery after the 4 year cycle of underperformance. Certainly, a value bet. A long-term chart illustrates the attractiveness – and looks beyond the 3% + gain on Friday’s close.

CMCSA: A longer –term play as demonstrated by recent strength. There is risk of overcrowded growth buyers but rewarding at current conditions.

Macro, Markets, Growth vs Value and Ideas.

General Comments:

In the near-term, US equities appear extended. Plenty of ideas, macro and cycle shifts reviewed. Crude finally slowing down with calming headline risks. Econ data unclear as markets looking ahead to econ / earnings. Any weakness ahead can create buying opportunities. Also, Growth vs. Value relationship showcases a rotation into Growth stocks.

(+) LONGS: S, MOT, IDCC, CMCSA, NTGR, CSCO, ABI, DNA, TECH, and PEIX.

Sector/Groups: Tech and Biotech.

(-) SHORTS: FED, CFC, SPG, BXP, HST, and VNO

Sector/Groups :Financials and Industrials:

Cycle Perspective -Growth vs. Value:

Since 2003, value is outperforming Growth in a bullish enviornment. The following chart illustrates the relationship between S&P Value vs. Growth. Notice: Growth ETF is dominated by technology (20%) and Healthcare(17%) as the leading sectors. Both sectors underperformed and are poised for a recovery. At the same time, value index composition is led by Financials (32%) and Industrials (11%). Interestingly, I continue to favor technology while trimming financials given this junction in the current cycle. Select industrials are showing sings of weakness. This style shift, lines up directly with sector rotation into tech and financials. Bottom-line, if growth stocks show strength, that should benefit select tech and healthcare.

Historical point to consider:

“A CSFB report late last year confirmed this view. The report concluded that on a price-to-cash flow basis growth stocks are cheaper than value stocks for the first time since at least 1977. The entire decline in the S&P 500’s p/e, since the bubble burst in 2000, is attributable to growth stock multiple contraction.”

Econ: #s appear solid and continued bullish interpretation (Non-Farm payroll included). Employment seems in tact and government data suggest inflation remains in check. Overall, the consensus view remains positive, which is reflected in the market behavior. Healthy tone is primary driven by gov’t data and Fed’s reassurance. The issue of rate hike vs cut is unclear – difficult to read. Currently, an edge to the 'rate cut' story, as pending economic concerns loom ahead.

All that said, I am looking for one more downside move in the general markets, which can surprise the market. I think that the housing data is underestimated and setting up for a surprise. Data watching will dominate headlines but I recommend staying focused on stock specific names.

Crude: After reaching a peak level at $66 – driven by Iran headlines which are slowly calming down. Near-term expecting further pullbacks. Reasonable support level at $60. (followed by $58).

US 10 Year Yield: Range bound in the last 7+ months. A tight range between 4.40 and 4.80. – This consolidation awaits fed policy or shift in economic climate.

Gold:remains in a tight range – not trending and actionable. There is a tug of war between buyers/sells as they await for a driving catalyst. Inflation is the assumed catalyst but yet to be resolved.

Investor Sentiment: Overall very neutral…argument for both taking holds and seen in the option markets. Not many extremes including VIX. In this environment, market can await headlines and on technical basis use Q1 highs as resistance level. Regardless, a difficult period to exploit extreme levels. Unless sector or stock specific calls. Also, money flow data

Growing confusion between slowing (Q4) earnings – especially in consumer related sectors vs. strong economy. Something has to give. In addition, the first quarter produced a correction and focus on weak housing. Also, a 4+ year uptrend in market calls for new trend to emerge. Hence, the argument for technology, Telco and media.

Looking Ahead:

Areas to buy on weakness: Again CNTM themes – Communication, Networkers, Telco and Media:

Communications:

IDCC: Attractive entry around 32 level, offers a short-term trading opportunity. (Tier 3- Idea).

Networkers: NTGR and CSCO to name a few – group setting up for an upside move.

Sprint (S): Turning around after a negative view and series of events. Climbing out of oversold levels but I do see further upside potential.

MOT: Continue to like the idea. And accumulate at current levels.

Media: CMCSA – worth a look above $25 where it is holding. Emerging ideas

Areas to sell on strength: Credit related themes –REITS –are vulnerable at current conditions. Short names to consider:

Watch list/Closely Monitoring: Retail recovery after an extended pause. GTRC – gaining some momentum as Q #’s are surprising the street. Also, declining oil can boost few retailers and consumer related space in the near-term.

Add to existing thesis: Alternative Energy: A growth area in energy – should provide additional lift despite crude performance.

Biotech looks attractive at current levels. Biotech powershare etf shows encouraging signs of turning. The group severely underperformed the rest of the market in 2006. It has been a difficult place to make money and poised for a turnaround. ABI – deeply oversold with a support level at $28.

Also, GILD, AMGN worth a look. Recent upgrades in other names in the group should trigger further investor demand. Actionable / early bet here. Other names to consider: DNA- multi-month trading range. TECH – strong volume as price increases. Buyers are stepping in, as ideas are worth a look on pullbacks.

Revisiting Biotech Emergence:

Biotech looks attractive at current levels. Biotech powershare etf shows encouraging signs of turning. The group severely underperformed the rest of the market in 2006. It has been a difficult place to make money and poised for a turnaround.

Stock Specific: ABI – deeply oversold with a support level at $28.

Other names to consider: DNA- multi-month trading range behavior – but given the positive group bias worth a shot.

TECH – strong volume as price increases. Buyers stepping in , worth a look on pullbacks.

Sprint (S)

Sprint (S): Turning around after a negative view and series of events. Climbing out of oversold levels but I do see further upside potential.

Strong support at $18.50. Plus positive headlines can get fundamentalist interested in the name:

Sprint (S) announced Monday that it will reduce the price of music purchased through the Sprint Music Store to 99 cents starting in early April; the same as on Apple's (AAPL) iTunes or the Real Music Store.

1st Qtr Review, Reits's weakness ahead, other long ideas

Quick Idea Summary:

Looking for further shorting opportunities in financials as a theme outlined for the first half of 2007. Specifically, focusing in REITs as a vulnerable area in the sector. This is in conjunction with high credit risks with fed speak, housing and extended pricings.

Biotech –emerging and worth looking at few names. Technology mixed but few noteworthy ideas in communication and networking related areas. Alternative energy ideas revealed and few stock specific ideas listed below.

End of 1st Quarter –

Big Picture/Macro Review:

Month-end combined with quarter end brings plenty of noise. Various data points but very difficult to gauge sustainable trends. February saw rising volatility and materialization of weak housing markets. Also, energy stocks held in a showing solid strength, economic data once again displayed mixed signals, and credit risk is becoming a growing concern.

Key factors to watch: Fed’s direction is not quite clear and appears to be monitored on a date-to-date basis. The lack of clarity in Fed’s message can spark the next downside move. The confusion pertains mainly to with inflation, housing and recession. In my view, its not the facts that matter but how Ben tries to manage the growing pessimism in the market place.

CREDIT RISK REVIEW :

REITS:

Again, from a cycle perspective, housing made a strong run from 2002 -2006. Therefore, there is further downside pressure yet to materialize fully. That is the basis in the cycle call for downside moves.

As stated last week, REIT’s are vulnerable in the financial sector. There are several names worth adding to the watch list. SPG, BXP, HST, and VNO.

Check out chart of SPG: --->

HOUSING:

Countrywide Financial Corp. (CFC) - Market Cap 19.84 b – Not timely at current levels, increasing negative sentiment and lack of stability in management. Certainly, not a new material to the marketplace but looking to short in the next few weeks.

Color on Alt-A market:

Alt-A products are almost exclusively adjustable rate, with teaser period of 3 or 5 years. Also a common denominator is the Stated Income feature, where the lender can assess the borrower ability to pay based on the income stated (yes, verbally - the lender takes the note) by the borrower. Stated income loans were originated heavily in 2004 - 2006. This implies that rate adjustment will start occurring this year, and will continue to happen through at least 2010. The bulk of it (70%) will happen in 2007 and 2008.

Commodity related themes should benefit given the uncertainty in Fed’s view. As stated last week, a very impressive run by energy stocks. In addition, Crude price increase is related to Iran’s news and a +5.87% weekly increase. The geopolitical factor is here upon us once again.

Gold remains in a tight range – not trending and actionable. There is a tug of war between buyers/sells as they await for a driving catalyst. Inflation is the assumed catalyst but yet to be resolved.

US 10 Year Yield: Near-term watching for resistance close to 4.70 ranges.


Equity Markets:

Most names are overbought in the near-term. Again, difficult to find timely long ideas for a sustainable period. Last week, I identified technology names to consider. And will revisit a close watch list in that area. Alternative energy names are showing signs of recovery and finally revisiting financial shorts. The macro environment combined with earning season will cause

Pacific Ethanol Inc. (PEIX): Like the group behavior, on near-term pullbacks accumulate. Stock oversold with strong support at $15 level. Looking for a pullback from $17 level near-term. Many view this name as a speculative play but attractive risk/reward and phase one in the recovery stage. Chart attached below.



Biotech: As a group seeing signs of turning. An early observation and worth betting on the long side.

Applera Corp. Applied Biosystems Group ABI: Deeply oversold plenty of value. Attractive entry point. (Chart attached below)




“On the valuation side, the company's forward EBITDA multiple is at 9x, well below its historical average and that of the comp group (11.4x). Additionally, the company has a forward operating cash flow yield of 7.6%, well above the previous 2 years and significantly above the comp group average of 2-3% (with a free cash flow yield of 6.3%). Given the strength in fundamental valuation vs. current trading levels, the firm thinks that now is an opportune time to add shares of ABI.”

Sprint (S): Turning around after a negative view and series of events. Climbing out of oversold levels but I do see further upside potential.

Hutchinson Technology Inc. (HTCH): Attractive levels, with growing insider buying. Part of an oversold tech theme. Momentum is currently oversold and above $20 trend remains positive.



Re-visiting write-up on MOT:
Motorola Inc. (MOT) – Despite weak numbers and poor performance stock is worth a look at these levels. First, analysts were expecting bad numbers and weak sales. Of course, below expectation is the headline observation Stock is down from $26 -17 range, with bad news factored in and with surfacing rumors on PALM buy out. Therefore, add to the watch list name for an attractive entry point. Sticking to the discipline, outside of the headline risk look for stabilization at current levels.

Weekly Review – Sector outlook, Tactics and actionable Ideas.

Weekly Review – Sector outlook, Tactics and actionable Ideas.

Clearly, this past week fed’s comment paint the headlines and explain the upside moves. Especially strength in emerging markets which stood out (MSCI Emerging Markets 116.62 +5.14%). Coinciding with strength in emerging markets, commodities were the top performing leaders during the week. Notably, commodity related steel and energy showed strength. (more energy below).

Investors beating to the same beat:

Put/Call ratio coming down along with volatility (VIX) – this suggests that we are back to compliancy. Therefore my goal this week is to think ahead and avoid “compliancy” risk.

Not seeking value in Housing:

Quick Note:

Fed view on housing: “Recent indicators have been mixed and the adjustment in the housing sector is ongoing.”

Important to note that the Federal Reserve has recognized recent signs of weakness in housing. Although, let us not forget homebuilder Index peaked in 2005 therefore sub prime is the follow up to weakness in the financial sector.

Next vulnerable area in financials looks like REIT’s and keeping a close watch. In Financials looking to rotate into banks. For example, shorting ICE a rewarding call from weeks ago. Few short covering in lending space resulted in upside move but rather sell that news. Again, in the near-term looking for little upside move but looking to stay neutral or short stock specific names.

Energy stocks showing strength after a rough open to the year. Notably, in the last three months energy has led the broader market. In the near-term, looking for consolidation. Technical’s setting up positively, and maintain my neutral view in the overall sector but undeniable strength emerging.

Crude: Following an 8+ month correction from summer 2006 highs, tight range in the $58-62 range. News flows this week critical to move prices as key resistance at $62.

MOT – Despite weak numbers and poor performance stock is worth a look at these levels. First, analysts were expecting bad numbers and weak sales. Of course, below expectation is the headline observation Stock is down from $26 -17 range, with bad news factored in and with surfacing rumors on PALM buy out. Therefore, add to the watch list name for an attractive entry point. Sticking to the discipline, outside of the headline risk look for stabilization at current levels.

Tech Favorites to watch: HTCH, ELX, BRCD,NTGR, and FFIV.

Media: looking for pullbacks in the near-term w/ PBS ETF stretched. Similarly, food related stocks are overdone as well. That tells me that defensive themes are overplayed here and chasing beta in the right sector might be rewarding. (ex. Broad market risk).

Stock specific story: SSCC: The homebuilders and housing related stocks are not my favorite place to seek value plays. But I do like lagging names in home furnishing. There are few attractive consumer ideas which are not streched. Also, analyst ratings are too negative in this name with positive growth potential.

Group Review:

Powershares Clean Energy ETF looks attractive at current levels given its consolidation. Specific names to consider. BLDP- shares a similar pattern with $5.50 support and attempting to stabilize at current levels. A risky bet given negative earnings and showcased by analysts’ estimates with one buy rating. Similarly, strength in the sector among some names like ZOLT and AMSC developing high-tech ways to upgrade the nation's strained power grid.. Momentum name in the group ELON – looks very strong less timely. EMKR- looking for upside catalyst, CPST- deeply oversold FCEL- 5.84 support.

Macro and Sector Review -

Technical/Macro Review:

After completing a 1/3 correction from recent highs markets are trying to find a bottom. Upon completing the first phase of the correction; the support levels for the S&P are at 1373 followed by 1363. NDX – is closer to 200 day mva, with an oversold momentum and recent lows of 1710. That places us back to Q3 lows.

Sentiment: Also, put/call ratio retraced from highs of 1.70 – suggesting that overly bearish/fear indicators have corrected. In other words, this should build optimism for trading longs in the near-term. Although, a dramatic downside move can shrug many shorts, there is additional downside left in the marketplace.

Therefore, the bulls are warming up to “buy the dips”. Sector selection for a recovery bounce is key. In select areas some sectors are due for further correction. In my opinion, as previously stated Financials and Energy need further down/sideway trading action. Near-term indicators are pointing to oversold levels, and that presents a buying window.

Rate-Sensitive themes: Financial weakness continues on the surface and REITS are vulnerable since from a long-term perspective, stocks appear extended.
Drivers of similar themes are caused by various headlines. Continue adding to shorts in select names: FED, BKUNA and ICE. Despite, oversold levels, I am looking for one more downside opportunity.

Crude: Friday’s close on Oil showed the strength of overhead around the $60 level. There is a downside pressure from a cycle perspective and further stabilization ahead. This reflects in the behavior of energy stocks, which should struggle to provide market leadership. Beyond OPEC’s news, chart suggests a trading range behavior with $55 next support.

Further signs of strength in technology. Stocks in CSCO’s group are attractive and worth a look for bargains. CSCO acquiring Webex sign of growth and works well for other competitors in related areas. Again focus in this sector is on stock picking, identifying timely entry points. Waiting for one more downside move in the broad market to accumulate.

Additional Wisom:

How are we able to make money by following trends year in and year out? I think it’s because markets react to news, but ultimately major change takes place over time. Trends develop because there’s an accumulating consensus on future prices...So price adjustments take time as they fluctuate and a new consensus is formed in the face of changing market conditions and new facts. For some changes this consensus is easy to reach, but there are other events that take time to formulate a market view. It’s those events that take time that form the basis of our profits.
John W. Henry