Weekly Results:
S&P 500 -.19% NASDAQ -.88% Russell 2000 +1.18% and MSCI Emerging Markets -.90%
Big Picture :
Plenty of action in a holiday shortened week. A sharp global sell-off, Federal Reserve intervention and approval of a stimulus package all caught the attention of mainstream media. Beyond the growing concern of "recession" and panicked selling, there are plenty of factors contributing to market performance. Mainly, company earnings continue to shape investor outlook. This week is jam-packed with earnings results from several companies that can give clues to emerging themes. Also, outside of typical investment noise, last week's actions should not be surprising given the current junction of the business cycle, credit concerns and a pending trend shift.
Volatility and Trend Shift
As many investors watch their portfolio fluctuate, once again it reminds us of the power of volatility, or at least it showcases the importance of watching movement in the VIX (volatility index). More so, on a relative basis the last few years were less turbulent in a period of a bullish uptrend. For example, the index is up nearly 300% since December 2006.
Now, a trend shift is upon us, following a multi-year upside move in commodity based and emerging market themes. Last week, demonstrated a historic like market response; highlighted by wild swings in global markets. As fear continues to build, it forced the Federal Reserve to take a decisive and aggressive approach in cutting rates.
Portfolio Management:
Sentiment remains at extreme bearish levels, which suggests that markets are poised for mean reversion. At the same time, current macro condition leave uncontrollable doubts leading to uncertainty. Therefore, investing in quality ideas is critical. Especially, when expectations are relatively high following recent bullish run. Nonetheless, from a cycle perspective, investors can seek bargains in innovative based themes.
ACTIONABLE IDEAS:
Technology:
Technology is showing signs of regaining leadership following recent corrections. Again, stock specific selection can create better rewards, especially if earnings are above expectations. Simply, valuations for most names are cheap. Plus, the market cycle favors an upside moves in select areas.
CREE (Cree Inc): Upside move continues with strength in its relative strength especially in the past 3 months. Following a solid strength, plenty of upside catalysts including environmental concerns, and demand for efficient energy use. In terms of upside potential, stock is far removed from all-time highs of $100.
SY (Sybase): Profits continue to rise as management delivered to its shareholders. Accumulate as stock stabilizes between $27-25 ranges. Longer-term outlooks are promising.
EMC (EMC Corp): Technical pattern is attractive with a buy point at $16. Fundamental drivers include ownership of VMC (VM Ware), a leader in providing efficient products for IT servers. In addition, EMC's other business units are relatively cheap on valuation basis.
Healthcare:
ECLP (Eclipsys): Company should benefit from growing demand for IT healthcare. Near-term entry point is attractive around $24.
BLUD (Immucor): Reaching oversold levels around $28, a major support level. Analyst have lowered estimates which can create an upside surprise. Overall, fundamental are intact and weakness can create buying opportunity.
MACRO LEVELS:
Crude: Consolidating between $98-88 in the past few months. The commodity is searching for an upcoming catalyst after pausing at $100.
Gold: Once again reaching all-time highs. An explosive 43%+ run since summer lows. Again, investors are rushing for safety following credit concerns.
US 10 Year Yield: Inversely correlated to Gold prices. Nearly a 35% decline since summer highs of 5.20%. Last few days are showing a bottoming potential near 3.28%.
DXY (Dollar Index): Following sharp declines in the past few years, interestingly the index has not made new lows since November 26, 2007. Once again, a 3 month pause appears like a trend reversal. Nonetheless, bearish view on the US Dollar is reaching extreme levels.
FXI (
S&P 500: Next major resistance level is at 1400 followed by1450. Technical indicators are deeply oversold and suggest a recovery. Index is 12% removed from 200 day moving average.