Market Outlook | June 22, 2009

Weekly Results:

S&P 500 921.23 -2.64%
DJIA 8,539.73 -2.95%
NASDAQ 1,827.47 -1.69%
Russell 2000 512.72 -2.68%
MSCI Emerging Markets 31.89 -5.77%

Assessing the climate

A short-term perspective, points to increasing odds for declines in equities, commodities and US interest rates. In other words, chart observers agree of a high possibility for a counter-trend move. This reflects investors mentality of seeking a shift away from risky themes. Perhaps, the last few days provide an early clue of pending downtrends. For example, recent declines in trading volume suggest fading momentum. At this moment, investors are forced to decide between protecting profits versus staying optimistically patient. Importantly, the regulatory climate remains a wild-card. Therefore, finding bullish themes remains relatively challenging as markets attempt to digest pending policies.

Examining Odds

In looking ahead, one can assume that making stock specific calls is more favorable than broad market speculation. Initially, this sounds feasible given several unknowns in changing global markets. Generally, in any market conditions the real battle is to identify promising earnings, relative bargains and favorable entry points. At this point, equity markets are not extremely cheap given a forward P/E of 14.5. Also, expecting high risk/reward on historical basis alone can be misleading especially at this inflection point. Similarly, picking the right sector or stock for a sustainable period is blurry since the new ‘normal’ is undefined. As a result, financial markets lack enough convincing points to attract major participation. For that reason, additional catalysts are needed.

Credit Weakness:

Commodities and Emerging Markets gained momentum on a relative basis. On the other hand, credit related themes lack major improvements. After a speculative appreciation, Homebuilders and Financials are beginning to pause. Homebuilder index (HGX) peaked on May 5^th. Similarly, the Bank index ( BKX) exhausted its run on May 7^th. These indicators point to a weak and unstable recovery in interest sensitive themes. Participants are struggling to find strength in core fundamentals. For example, delinquency rates in mortgages and credit cards continue to climb.

Levels:

S&P 500 [921.23] Key trading range between 900-940. The index is trading in a narrow 2+ month range. Both the 200 and 50 day moving averages are roughly around 900. (Can have a Psychological impact).

Crude [$ 69.55] Extended in the near-term. Technicals suggest an early peak on June 11^th of $73.23. Mild support around $60 followed by $58.

Gold [$935.25] In two occasions this year, Gold failed to reach above $980. Momentum is stalling and additional catalysts needed for a recovery.

DXY – US Dollar [80.26] Continues to trade in a narrow range for the past few weeks around major support level of 80.

US 10 Year Treasury Yield [3.78 %] After a 3 + months rise, yields are taking a breather. Too early to determine if a declines are sustainable after peaking at 4%. Next major support stands near 3.20%.

Dear Readers:

The positions and strategies discussed on MarketTakers are offered for entertainment purposes only and are in no way intended to serve as personal investing advice. Readers should not make any investment decision without first conducting their own thorough due diligence. Readers should assume the editor holds a position in any securities discussed, recommended or panned. While the information provided is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed, nor can this publication be, in any Publish Post, considered liable for the future investment performance of any securities or strategies discussed.

Market Outlook | June 15, 2009

Weekly Result:

S&P 500 946.21 +.65%
DJIA 8,799.26 +.41%
NASDAQ 1,858.80 +.51%
Russell 2000 526.83 -.67%
MSCI Emerging Markets 33.85 +.75%

A Quick Overview:

Based on recent performance, one can conclude that sentiment is optimistic. On the other hand, credit and economic concerns lack clarity. Clearly, lots of events headlines and data points. Yet, stabilization is the key takeaway across financial markets. Investors are gaining confidence in buying Commodities and Emerging Markets. Perhaps these sectors are less affected by the credit crisis. Secondly, a cycle view reminds us that the multi-year shift favors non-interest related areas. Thirdly, on a relative basis commodity and developing markets face less uncertainties from policymakers. In fact, Emerging Market funds attracted nearly $30 billion so far this year. Meanwhile, speculating on upcoming Federal Reserve decisions may not present actionable ideas. Overall, investors are willing to take risk in momentum plays rather than wait for credit improvements in developed countries.

“S&P 500 Index has not posted a daily rise or fall of 1% or more since June 4, the longest stretch in 14 months. Since September 15, 2008, when Lehman Brothers filed the largest ever US bankruptcy, 131 out of the 188 trading days have had moves of 1% or more.” (Bloomberg June 12)

Looking Ahead:

Generally, too much comfort leads to complacency. Eventually, this opens up the possibility of sharp and surprising reversals. That said, confidence is visible in the behavior of key indicators. Since November 2008, volatility has declined by nearly 65% as measured by the VIX . This reflects less turbulent movements and a move away from fear. In fact, Volatility and Gold indexes are only few points above June 2008 levels. Basically, a roller coaster ride from panic to rally. Maybe, a new “normal” is being redefined. On the other hand, Equities and Crude are well below summer 2008 ranges. Perhaps, this explains the strong run. In other words, Equities and Crude are playing catch up towards stability. Psychologically, investors analyzing these barometers can sense that markets are not too bearish. Currently, the year to date returns on broad US indices are positive (S&P +4.8%, Nasdaq +17.9% and Russell 2000 5.5%).

“Although Federal Reserve credit creation has soared in the past year, private financial sector credit creation has plunged. Before one gets too worked up about Treasury borrowing and Fed credit creation, one has to take into consideration how much private nonfinancial sector borrowing and private financial sector credit creation have slowed." Paul Kasriel (Northern Trust)

Levels:

S&P 500 [946.21] Forming a narrow range between 930-950 in the past 10 days. Overall positive trend continues to hold.

Crude [72.04$] Regaining multi-year momentum. Breaking above $60 trigged additional buy signals.

Gold [$937.25] Struggling to hold above $960 this year. A break below $850 can create additional selling pressure.

DXY – US Dollar [80.14] Slightly holding above annual lows. Sitting at a key support level $80. Too early to declare a trend reversal.

US 10 Year Treasury Yield [3.78%] Early indication of of peaking after bottoming in mid December 2008. Few points removed from annual highs of 4%.

Dear Readers:

The positions and strategies discussed on MarketTakers are offered for entertainment purposes only and are in no way intended to serve as personal investing advice. Readers should not make any investment decision without first conducting their own thorough due diligence. Readers should assume the editor holds a position in any securities discussed, recommended or panned. While the information provided is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed, nor can this publication be, in any Publish Post, considered liable for the future investment performance of any securities or strategies discussed.

Market Outlook | June 8th 2009

Weekly Results:

S&P 500 940.09 +2.28%

DJIA 8,763.13 +3.09%

NASDAQ 1,849.42 +4.23%

Russell 2000 530.l36 +5.74%

MSCI Emerging Markets 33.59 +1.73%

Mid Year Perspective:

Six months after a historic year, gauging key indicators appears like a guessing game. Most asset classes rearrange from severe levels. Therefore, conducting historical analysis alone is not sufficient . In addition, the lack of defined trends and pending policies contribute to a speculative environment. That said, overall sentiment is biased on the positive side. Interestingly, US 10 Year Treasury Yields, Crude and S&P 500 Index are trading near annual highs. However, recent optimism is mostly based on relative comparisons to points reached in October 2008 and March 2009. Yet, performance alone does not reflect recent capital erosion and reshuffling process of the financial sector.

In weeks ahead, a mild pullback is possible as investors examine the risk of staying invested versus profit taking. Of course, the ongoing rally continues to invite and entice sideline observers. For example, emerging markets outperformance presents solid uptrends . Similarly, major indices broke above 200 day moving averages creating a technical buzz. At the same time, bulls are attracted to Tech and resource based themes given relative leadership. Meanwhile, credit related areas are vulnerable and require additional improvement.

"The four-week flood of money into developing-nation stock funds that drove the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to an eight-month high is sending the strongest sell signal since equities peaked in October 2007. Inflows totaled $12 billion... the most since the 22-country benchmark hit its record high 19 months ago..." (Bloomberg – June 2009)

S&P 500 [940.09] Longer term charts suggest a sideway pattern between 800-1000. Major resistance around 1000 which should further test overall buyers conviction.

Crude [$68.44] Few points removed from annual highs of $70.32. Positive multi-month momentum.

Gold [$962] Trading near the higher end of all time trading range between 900 and 1000.

DXY – US Dollar [80.67] Index hit yearly lows at 78.33 on June 2^nd. Nonetheless, nearing an inflection point around 80. Favorable odds for a trend reversal.

US 10 Year Treasury Yield [3.82%] Friday marked a multi-month high in yields of 3.89%. Overbought in the near-term.

Dear Readers:

The positions and strategies discussed on MarketTakers are offered for entertainment purposes only and are in no way intended to serve as personal investing advice. Readers should not make any investment decision without first conducting their own thorough due diligence. Readers should assume the editor holds a position in any securities discussed, recommended or panned. While the information provided is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed, nor can this publication be, in any Publish Post, considered liable for the future investment performance of any securities or strategies discussed.

Market Notes | June 1, 2009

Weekly Results:
S&P 500 919.14 +3.47%
NASDAQ 1,774.33 +4.67%
Russell 2000 501.58 +4.23%
MSCI Emerging Markets 33.02 +4.44%

In the spring months, markets showcased some stability in a post panic period. Participants continue to witness the first recovery phase from dislocated ranges. This is visible in the behavior of Commodities, stocks and interest rates. Key indicators are recovering uniformly just like the synchronized declines of 2008. In the past three months, S&P 500 is up nearly 25% catching the attention of sideline investors. Since late December, Crude is up over 100 % and US 10 Year Treasury Yields rose nearly 84%. Interestingly, headline and legislative worries may not reflect sharp upside moves. So far this year, speculators have shown high tolerance for “risky” assets.

Levels:

S&P 500 [919.14] Intermediate-term improvement following March lows. Near-term pause developing between 880-920.

Crude [$66.31] Solid uptrend. Approaching next key resistance near $70 last reached in November. Positive momentum following a break above 200 day moving average.

Gold [ 975.50] Nearing a key psychological level at $1000. February highs of 989 is worth watching closely from a technical perspective.

DXY – US Dollar [80.43] Index is down over 11% after peaking in March 2009. Nearing key support around 80.

US 10 Year Treasury Yield [3.44 %] Multi-month rise is pausing. Lase few days, a sharp decline from highs of 3.74%. The sustainability of this trend will be tested in weeks ahead.

Meanwhile, investors weigh the creditability and sustainability of this inevitable bounce. Beyond performance, the long term outlook of credit conditions and government debt seem unresolved. In fact, charts suggest a pause in appreciation of risky assets and broad US indexes. Similarly, the downgrade of United Kingdom’s sovereign rating and GM’s bankruptcy can quickly change sentiment. Therefore, early summer sets the stage for possible sell-offs.

Commodities, Emerging Markets and Technology lead this current rally. Perhaps, leadership is shifting towards groups with less exposure to credit risk. On the other hand, interest rate sensitive themes such as Financials and Utilities are underperforming year to date. Once again, credit worries resurface. At this stage, taking speculative positions can be costly given increase in P/E ratio to 15.5 from 13.1. (Robert Shiller of Yale) Buying at current prices appears expensive especially for bargain hunters and value seekers. That said, momentum chasers and optimists face a decision between profit taking versus adding on pullbacks.

"Deleveraging means paying down debt instead of paying out dividends or buying in stock. Indeed, as the pick-up in equity financing indicates, it means issuing new shares. 'The growth rate in of earnings per share thus is likely to be worse than that indicated by profit margins alone,"(Smithers & Co)

Dear Readers:

The positions and strategies discussed on MarketTakers are offered for entertainment purposes only and are in no way intended to serve as personal investing advice. Readers should not make any investment decision without first conducting their own thorough due diligence. Readers should assume the editor holds a position in any securities discussed, recommended or panned. While the information provided is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed, nor can this publication be, in anyway, considered liable for the future investment performance of any securities or strategies discussed.

Weekly Results:

S&P 500 929.23 +5.89%

DJIA 8,574.65 +4.41%

NASDAQ 1,739.0 +1.15%

Russell 2000 511.82 +5.10%

MSCI Emerging Markets 31.30 +7.94%



Simply, an euphoric market reaction where surprises in expectation carry a heavier weight than headline concerns. Economic and corporate data alone does not fully reflect sentiment among participants. The market reminds us that unfathomable rewards are available during periods of panic. Yet, another twist and turn awaits when focus shifts away from headline worries. Although, policymakers are credited for market stabilization, another bubble might be forming given the increased supply of government securities. At this point, monitoring those dynamics can provide a better read on upcoming sentiment.

The performance of an equally weighted S&P 500 index reflects additional strength than visible in regular charts. In fact, on a relative strength basis, a bottoming process began to develop in late November. Similarly, US 10 year Treasury Yields and Crude are nearing annual highs which affirms a recovery process from previously dislocated financial markets. Clearly, 2008 presented a historic like sell-offs and panic driven responses. Now, a restoration process is in full gear especially with improving credit conditions.

Further demand for risky assets?

A similar messages are transmitted in equity, currency and fixed income markets. Investors continue to place their chips towards riskier assets. Clearly, greater willingness for risk and a rotation out of safe havens. For example, rise in US treasury partially signals less demand for government secured instruments. Also, Gold’s decline in the first quarter showcases less interest for exposure in a safer asset. From a currency standpoint, declining dollar is inversely correlated to equity markets.

S&P [929.23] Approaching a key target near 200 day moving average (954.80). New trading range forming between 840-980 range.

Crude [$58.63] Trading near annual highs which stands at $58.75. Since March 2009, Oil is outperforming Gold while lagging behind stock market returns.

Gold [ $907] Attempting to reaccelerate at current levels. Early indication of basing at $880 following multi-week declines from annual highs.

US 10 Year Yield [3.29%] A 5+ month upside move in yields. Major resistance at 3.50% which is near the average trading lever for 2008.

DXY – US Dollar Index [ 82.52] An 8% decline since March 4 highs. Index continues to underperform while making new annual lows.

Landscape and investor minds:

Now, investors are forced to either believe in the recent trend or take the opposite side of this optimism. In many ways, an inflection point is long awaited. Yet, timing is tricky and emotional. Some are frustrated after waiting for pullbacks to accumulate at cheaper prices. On the other hand, short players are not sensing adverse moves in momentum especially when gauging psychology. Picking themes in risky sectors has certainly been profitable. Based on current levels, aggressively buying here may not fit the optimal risk/reward set up. At this stage, this trade feels less appealing and more of the “herd like” approach.

Long-term investors are digesting the fundamental climate while estimating true strength of this market. Fear driven observers remain skeptical. Nonetheless, there are enough speculators seeking opportunities while cautiously awaiting the faith of volatility. In reality, not many participants are confident in understanding government intervention, reasons behind cycle breakdown and the lag effect of policies. Finally, taking a neutral stance is an option as well.

Market Notes | May 4, 2009

Weekly Results:

S&P 500 877.52 +1.30%

DJIA 8,212.41 +1.69%

NASDAQ 1,719.20 +1.47%

Russell 2000 486.98 +1.72%

MSCI Emerging Markets 28.99 +4.19%

Recent optimism

In this recent rally, global investors increased overall desire to speculate. Investor psychology and Federal Reserve actions provide clues to this multi-week recovery. Volatility remains in a six month downturn. Similarly, treasury yields continue to rise. Both factors confirm early optimism and suggest market stabilization. The shift towards risky assets benefits higher beta groups. For example, consumer, commodities and interest sensitive themes resulted in higher absolute returns. In addition, positive technicals in Technology and Consumer Discretionary indicates clues to new cycle leaders.

So far in 2009, NASDAQ is up 9% and few points removed from its 200 day moving average. That said, Gold peaked in late February 2009 and US Dollar topped in early March 2009. This illustrates an early rotation out of “safe” areas. Similarly, healthcare and staple witnessed sharp sell-offs. Now, the faith of this relationship (risky vs. defensive) will be tested on pending economic data and earnings announcements. Nonetheless, odds are increasing for a broad market pullback.

Clearly, a reshuffling period for managers and participants. Intervention and unclear guidance from policymakers create a semi-defined trend. Importantly, the Federal Reserve language determines investor psychology. At this point, anxiety is less visable but economic outlook is mixed. Therefore, one can expect more short-term oriented trading with higher turnover. At the same time, patience is required for value seekers especially when evaluating groups related to credit.

Macro Levels:

S&P 500 [877.52] Recent uptrend is approaching resistance levels between 880 and 960 (near the 200 day moving average).

Crude [$53.20] Positive trend intact as the index remains above $48. Crude closed below previous highs of $54.66 reached on March 26.

Gold [$884.50] A 3+ month downtrend continues as Gold broke below $900. Mostly a sell-off driven by a movement towards risky assets.

DXY – US Dollar [84.54] Nearly, a two month decline following a 1 + year run that began in March 2008.

US 10 Year Treasury Yield [3.16%] Broke above 3% and heading towards 50 day average of 3.34%. Yields bottomed at the end of 2008. Investors await for the second stage of rising yields.

Dear Readers:

The positions and strategies discussed on MarketTakers are offered for entertainment purposes only and are in no way intended to serve as personal investing advice. Readers should not make any investment decision without first conducting their own thorough due diligence. Readers should assume the editor holds a position in any securities discussed, recommended or panned. While the information provided is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed, nor can this publication be, in anyway, considered liable for the future investment performance of any securities or strategies discussed.

Weekly Results:

S&P 500 866.23 -.39% 
DJIA 8,076.29 -.68% 
NASDAQ 1,694.29 +1.27% 
Russell 2000 478.74 -.13% 
MSCI Emerging Markets 27.83 -.54%

Overall Picture:

Investors strive to decipher polices and regulatory decisions. Even Friday’s document on the health of US financial system is not enough to explain long term solutions. Through this maze, earnings point to an upside quarterly surprise. So far, 67% of companies have reported numbers above analyst expectations. (Bespoke Investment). Maybe, this makes sense following a historic downturn and ongoing economic concerns that led to lower expectations. Challenges in the current landscape go beyond declaring a directional wager. Specifically, long-term investors look to grasp mixed economic data, gauge sentiment among partakers and speculate on pending catalysts. Interestingly, Federal Reserve guidance is a topic of key consequence for equity and currency observes. Clearly, an increasing demand for further clues given side way price patterns of S&P 500 index and Crude. Simply, majority players are reluctant to add at current levels despite recent shift towards risky assets. A pause in this rally now sets the stage that tests buyer conviction.

Picking Spots:

Upcoming earnings ought to shape stock-specific reactions. Perhaps a time to  Identify themes for the next cycle based on lessons from previous turnarounds. For example, isolating between innovative and resource groups might present opportunities. That said, headlines are difficult to ignore even for those contrarians. As a new administration marks the completion of 100 days; the blurry economic climate takes center stage. Yet, when spotting leading groups  housing and interest sensitive themes are prime candidates. A step back, reminds us that Financials offer the highest risk/reward in the marketplace. This week, S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index along with FOMC comments serves as key catalyst for speculators. 

“And in the housing sector, the declines in sales and construction of single-family homes have abated in the past couple of contrarians months--in part, perhaps, because of the low levels of mortgage interest rates and the greater affordability of housing. As demand firms, and once inventories of houses and a broad range of goods are brought into line with sales, economic activity should begin to stabilize.” (Speech from Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald L. Kohn)

Select Technology and Healthcare stocks remain undervalued when examining financial statements.From a cycle view point, a promising outlook for merger activities as Larger companies seek growth. Importantly, nonbelievers of emerging markets and commodities can rotate into Western based innovative companies. In other words, an alternative option. Nonetheless, investors sentiment towards risky assets paints a better overall picture.

MACRO LEVELS:

S&P 500 [866.23] Index keeps hovering in a tight range around 800-900. Since October 2008, directional trend is unclear given a range between the 50 and 200 day moving average. 

Crude [$51.55] Trying to re-accelerate after bottoming earlier this year. Near-term support is around $46.

Gold [$907.50] Developing strength in the last few weeks. Odds appear favorable for a recovery. Next key target is annual highs of $989 reached in February 2009.

DXY – US Dollar [84.71] 2+ month of declining trend which suggests an early decline. Approaching an inflection point as index nears 84. Further economic data can provide clues for an unambiguous reaction.        

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
US 10 Year Yield [2.99%] Once again, yields are nearing the 3% range. Specifically, 3.04% marked annual highs in February.

 

Dear Readers:

The positions and strategies discussed on MarketTakers are offered for entertainment purposes only and are in no way intended to serve as personal investing advice. Readers should not make any investment decision without first conducting their own thorough due diligence. Readers should assume the editor holds a position in any securities discussed, recommended or panned. While the information provided is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed, nor can this publication be, in anyway, considered liable for the future investment performance of any securities or strategies discussed.

 

 

Market Outlook | April 20, 2009

Weekly Results :

S&P 500 869.60 +1.52% 
DJIA 8,131.33 +.59% 
NASDAQ 1,673.07 +1.24% 
Russell 2000 479.37 +2.39% 
MSCI Emerging Markets 27.98 +1.63%

A game of expectations:

Another positive week for global markets as fear slowly evaporates.  This rally is mostly driven by earnings and ongoing six week momentum. Recent optimism is fueled by participants expecting results better than analyst estimates. At the same time, those chasing returns are gaining further conviction. Financials reported a pleasing quarterly outcome. In addition, improving technicals and less market turbulence justify the recent upside move. Nonetheless, this inevitable recovery is due for a pause.

Buying Dynamics:

In terms of leading groups, Homebuilders are nearing their 200 day average faster than other groups. Increase in home sales and appreciation in Housing Market Index (HMI) hint of an early turnaround. At the same time, Real Estate state stocks are cheap attracting long term investors Yet it seems too premature to declare that the downtrend is nearing an end.  Therefore, expectations continue to drive price moment than actual fundamentals for weeks ahead.

“Analysts have cut estimates for 772 companies in the S&P 1500 and raised estimates for 290 over the last four weeks. This works out to a net of -482, which represents 32.1% of the Index - the highest level since late September. " (Bespoke –April 2009)

Macro Clues:

The US dollar peaked on March 4^th. Two days later, the S&P 500 bottomed at 666. Now, investors are wondering if the US Dollar declines along with interest rates and commodities. Perhaps, this trend creates a favorable environment for equities. Basically, this showcases an expansion in risk appetite.That said, credit conditions for most companies are deteriorating. At early glance,  investors dismissed cooling economic data from China. One interpretation suggests that most buying is due to speculation. Similarly, mixed economic data can  . In other words, recent trends are not fully defined from a long-term perspective.

“The smart money has not moved back into the market since the financial collapse of 2008. This suggests that the smart money is viewing the current rally that began on March 9 as a bear market rally."  (Chartoftheday.com)

Macro Levels:

S&P 500 [869.60] Approaching a key level around 900 after surpassing 50 day average of 791.

Crude [$50.33] Several months of a sideway pattern where the 200 day average stands at $72.

Gold [$870] Two month decline trigged after Gold reached annual highs in March. Longer term uptrend remains intact with major support at 840.

DXY – US Dollar [85.98] Index continues to maintain its relative strength despite recent pullbacks.

US 10 Year Yield [2.94%]  Yields are struggling to move above 3%. In upcoming days, observers  closely watch to see potential trend reversal.

 

Dear Readers:

The positions and strategies discussed on MarketTakers are offered for entertainment purposes only and are in no way intended to serve as personal investing advice. Readers should not make any investment decision without first conducting their own thorough due diligence. Readers should assume the editor holds a position in any securities discussed, recommended or panned. While the information provided is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed, nor can this publication be, in anyway, considered liable for the future investment performance of any securities or strategies discussed.