Market Outlook July 13, 2009

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Weekly Results:

S&P 500 879.13 -1.93%
DJIA 8,146.52 -1.62%
NASDAQ 1,756.03 -2.25%
Russell 2000 480.98 -3.26%
MSCI Emerging Markets 31.11 -3.10%

Light volume and slight increase in volatility resulted in a negative close for broad indices. Clearly, the appetite for riskier assets is taking a pause. Now, optimists are forced to rethink overall positions. Commodities are pulling back at a faster pace with Crude down 10% last week. Similarly, Gold, Oil and Steel related stocks led the downside move in equity markets. This indicates ongoing weakness in global trade and demand for commodities. On the other hand, few investment opportunities present themselves given oversold levels. Meanwhile, earnings season approaches and usually presents a game of expectations. Yet, in upcoming weeks, a skeptical crowd awaits for evidence of fundamental improvements. For example, credit related themes are vulnerable given increase in distressed commercial property and weak retail sales.

The first half of 2009 reminds us the lack of sustainability of an upside rally. Mostly, a period of restoration trends are undefined. In turn, this makes long-term investing a riskier bet. At this point, investors are responding with higher anxiety levels driven by weak economic numbers, unsettled regulatory climate and unclear political factors. Similarly, consumer sentiment data fell significantly. At this point, analysts are seeking a catalyst. At this junction, market attention is poised to shift towards stock specific results. That said, the key question remains, if risky assets can recover and lead for the rest of the year. Overall, key macro indicators are linked closely and signal a uniform message of market correction.

That said, speculators can place their bets especially with a high risk/reward ratio. Short-term technicals suggest that optimists can use current levels as an entry point. A contrarian view, points to buying aggressively since 76% of US stocks are trading below their 50 day moving averages. In upcoming weeks, one should distinguish short-term behaviors versus longer-term themes.

The ISM for the non-manufacturing sector reinforced that the economy is stabilizing following the 'sudden stop' that occurred in the fourth quarter of last year. The new orders index rose to a post-Lehman high and is probing expansionary territory, indicating companies are regaining some confidence in final demand. This is corroborated by the continuing rise in the employment component, which shows that businesses are slowing the pace of job cuts, despite June's disappointing payroll figures. BCA Research, July 8, 2009.

Levels:

S&P 500 [879.13] Index is down 8% since peaking on June 11. Sitting near 200 day moving average with next major support at 850.

Crude [$59.89] Sharp decline after reaching annual highs. Attempting to stabilize around $60.

Gold [$913] Continues to trade in a narrow range between $900-950. At this stage, trend remains undefined.

DXY – US Dollar [80.20] For several weeks, forming a sideway pattern. Lack of significant catalyst explains a narrow trading range near 80.

US 10 Year Treasury Yield [3.29%] Pulling back from recent peak of 4%. Setting up for a reversal with major support around 3.20%.

Dear Readers:

The positions and strategies discussed on MarketTakers are offered for entertainment purposes only and are in no way intended to serve as personal investing advice. Readers should not make any investment decision without first conducting their own thorough due diligence. Readers should assume the editor holds a position in any securities discussed, recommended or panned. While the information provided is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed, nor can this publication be, in any Publish Post, considered liable for the future investment performance of any securities or strategies discussed.

Market Outlook | July 6, 2009

Weekly Results:

S&P 500 896.42 -2.59%
DJIA 8,280.74 -2.26%
NASDAQ 1,796.52 -1.80%
Russell 2000 497.21 -2.35%
MSCI Emerging Markets 32.11 +.89%

Painting the Big Picture:

Interestingly, June presented key Macro reversal points across six market indicators. In other words, ongoing trend shifts in commodities, US interest rates and global stock markets. Meanwhile, a slow recovery process is taking hold in the US Dollar. Perhaps, this signals less enthusiasm for risky assets. At the same time, economic numbers and credit conditions mostly confirm the downturn in this cycle.

Key trend reversal in June:

June 1, 2009: Gold paused at $981 and down 5.3% since that point. For the second time this year, Gold failed to climb above $990.

June 1, 2009: MSCI Emerging Markets index marked annual highs of 802.21. Eventually, the index closed few point lower at 761.30.

June 2, 2009: US Dollar Index reached annual lows of 78.34 and sparked a 2.5% appreciation. An early indication of relative strength versus other currencies.

June 11, 2009: S&P 500 paused at 956.23 and closed the week below a key support level of 900.

June 11, 2009: US 10 Year Treasury Yields toped at psychological level of 4% and current trades near 3.50%.

June 30, 2009: Crude paused at $73.38 at the last trading day in June. Remains overbought after a weekly close of $66.

Investor Feel

From a sentiment perspective, these pullbacks set the stage for additional sell-offs. For example, the S&P 500 turned slightly negative for the year. Short-term history reminds us, that July can present an eventful market action. At this point, participants are poised to reexamine the substance behind the first half rally. That said, clues from fundamentals and momentum offer less favorable odds for a recovery. Now, investors await earnings in upcoming weeks to gauge market expectations versus actual results.

"The recovery in global manufacturing has come primarily because companies have sold off much of their accumulated stocks and are re-starting mothballed production lines. Once this temporary boost is completed, serious questions remain about the source of longer-term demand to maintain the current momentum. (Financial Times July 2, 2009)

Dear Readers:

The positions and strategies discussed on MarketTakers are offered for entertainment purposes only and are in no way intended to serve as personal investing advice. Readers should not make any investment decision without first conducting their own thorough due diligence. Readers should assume the editor holds a position in any securities discussed, recommended or panned. While the information provided is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed, nor can this publication be, in any Publish Post, considered liable for the future investment performance of any securities or strategies discussed.

Market Outlook | June 29, 2009

S&P 500 918.90 -.25%
DJIA 8,438.39 -1.19%
NASDAQ 1,838.22 +.59%
Russell 2000 513.22 +.10%
MSCI Emerging Markets 32.29 +1.25%

At an early glance, not many significant changes in market performance, Federal Reserve tone and investor sentiment. Nonetheless, June provided early clues on a much needed breather to an uptrend that began in Mid March. Interestingly, Crude and Treasury Yields peaked on June 11th . Clearly, both indicators serve as a general barometer for interest rates and commodities. In other words, recent behavior makes a strong case for a sentiment shift away from risky assets. At this stage, speculators are reexamining the substance behind previous optimism.

Perhaps, this sideway behavior is a result of investors shortening their holding period. Similarly, the Federal Reserve did not provide major guidance. At the same time, pending regulatory changes have not fully materialized. A difficult week to search for major evidence of trend changes given quarter-end in a holiday shortened week. As the halfway point of 2009, corporate earnings can disappoint especially in credit related themes. From a technical view, breadth indicators suggest further pullbacks in broad markets. Importantly, the surprise element in earnings can shape the rest of the second quarter.
Looking ahead:

Innovation based themes offer attractive entry points for longer-term investments both in private and public markets. On a relative basis, commodity groups reached elevated levels and Financials remain weak. For the most part that leaves Technology and Healthcare attractive areas for stock specific selection. Groups in Technology with growth potential include broadband, media and telecommunication.

“The recent profit recession has pushed real profits below its long-term time trend. Remarkably though, domestic non-financial profits have held up better than expected. The resilience of profits in the past year does not reflect stronger-than-expected sales.” (BCA Research - June 24, 2009)

Market Outlook | June 22, 2009

Weekly Results:

S&P 500 921.23 -2.64%
DJIA 8,539.73 -2.95%
NASDAQ 1,827.47 -1.69%
Russell 2000 512.72 -2.68%
MSCI Emerging Markets 31.89 -5.77%

Assessing the climate

A short-term perspective, points to increasing odds for declines in equities, commodities and US interest rates. In other words, chart observers agree of a high possibility for a counter-trend move. This reflects investors mentality of seeking a shift away from risky themes. Perhaps, the last few days provide an early clue of pending downtrends. For example, recent declines in trading volume suggest fading momentum. At this moment, investors are forced to decide between protecting profits versus staying optimistically patient. Importantly, the regulatory climate remains a wild-card. Therefore, finding bullish themes remains relatively challenging as markets attempt to digest pending policies.

Examining Odds

In looking ahead, one can assume that making stock specific calls is more favorable than broad market speculation. Initially, this sounds feasible given several unknowns in changing global markets. Generally, in any market conditions the real battle is to identify promising earnings, relative bargains and favorable entry points. At this point, equity markets are not extremely cheap given a forward P/E of 14.5. Also, expecting high risk/reward on historical basis alone can be misleading especially at this inflection point. Similarly, picking the right sector or stock for a sustainable period is blurry since the new ‘normal’ is undefined. As a result, financial markets lack enough convincing points to attract major participation. For that reason, additional catalysts are needed.

Credit Weakness:

Commodities and Emerging Markets gained momentum on a relative basis. On the other hand, credit related themes lack major improvements. After a speculative appreciation, Homebuilders and Financials are beginning to pause. Homebuilder index (HGX) peaked on May 5^th. Similarly, the Bank index ( BKX) exhausted its run on May 7^th. These indicators point to a weak and unstable recovery in interest sensitive themes. Participants are struggling to find strength in core fundamentals. For example, delinquency rates in mortgages and credit cards continue to climb.

Levels:

S&P 500 [921.23] Key trading range between 900-940. The index is trading in a narrow 2+ month range. Both the 200 and 50 day moving averages are roughly around 900. (Can have a Psychological impact).

Crude [$ 69.55] Extended in the near-term. Technicals suggest an early peak on June 11^th of $73.23. Mild support around $60 followed by $58.

Gold [$935.25] In two occasions this year, Gold failed to reach above $980. Momentum is stalling and additional catalysts needed for a recovery.

DXY – US Dollar [80.26] Continues to trade in a narrow range for the past few weeks around major support level of 80.

US 10 Year Treasury Yield [3.78 %] After a 3 + months rise, yields are taking a breather. Too early to determine if a declines are sustainable after peaking at 4%. Next major support stands near 3.20%.

Dear Readers:

The positions and strategies discussed on MarketTakers are offered for entertainment purposes only and are in no way intended to serve as personal investing advice. Readers should not make any investment decision without first conducting their own thorough due diligence. Readers should assume the editor holds a position in any securities discussed, recommended or panned. While the information provided is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed, nor can this publication be, in any Publish Post, considered liable for the future investment performance of any securities or strategies discussed.

Market Outlook | June 15, 2009

Weekly Result:

S&P 500 946.21 +.65%
DJIA 8,799.26 +.41%
NASDAQ 1,858.80 +.51%
Russell 2000 526.83 -.67%
MSCI Emerging Markets 33.85 +.75%

A Quick Overview:

Based on recent performance, one can conclude that sentiment is optimistic. On the other hand, credit and economic concerns lack clarity. Clearly, lots of events headlines and data points. Yet, stabilization is the key takeaway across financial markets. Investors are gaining confidence in buying Commodities and Emerging Markets. Perhaps these sectors are less affected by the credit crisis. Secondly, a cycle view reminds us that the multi-year shift favors non-interest related areas. Thirdly, on a relative basis commodity and developing markets face less uncertainties from policymakers. In fact, Emerging Market funds attracted nearly $30 billion so far this year. Meanwhile, speculating on upcoming Federal Reserve decisions may not present actionable ideas. Overall, investors are willing to take risk in momentum plays rather than wait for credit improvements in developed countries.

“S&P 500 Index has not posted a daily rise or fall of 1% or more since June 4, the longest stretch in 14 months. Since September 15, 2008, when Lehman Brothers filed the largest ever US bankruptcy, 131 out of the 188 trading days have had moves of 1% or more.” (Bloomberg June 12)

Looking Ahead:

Generally, too much comfort leads to complacency. Eventually, this opens up the possibility of sharp and surprising reversals. That said, confidence is visible in the behavior of key indicators. Since November 2008, volatility has declined by nearly 65% as measured by the VIX . This reflects less turbulent movements and a move away from fear. In fact, Volatility and Gold indexes are only few points above June 2008 levels. Basically, a roller coaster ride from panic to rally. Maybe, a new “normal” is being redefined. On the other hand, Equities and Crude are well below summer 2008 ranges. Perhaps, this explains the strong run. In other words, Equities and Crude are playing catch up towards stability. Psychologically, investors analyzing these barometers can sense that markets are not too bearish. Currently, the year to date returns on broad US indices are positive (S&P +4.8%, Nasdaq +17.9% and Russell 2000 5.5%).

“Although Federal Reserve credit creation has soared in the past year, private financial sector credit creation has plunged. Before one gets too worked up about Treasury borrowing and Fed credit creation, one has to take into consideration how much private nonfinancial sector borrowing and private financial sector credit creation have slowed." Paul Kasriel (Northern Trust)

Levels:

S&P 500 [946.21] Forming a narrow range between 930-950 in the past 10 days. Overall positive trend continues to hold.

Crude [72.04$] Regaining multi-year momentum. Breaking above $60 trigged additional buy signals.

Gold [$937.25] Struggling to hold above $960 this year. A break below $850 can create additional selling pressure.

DXY – US Dollar [80.14] Slightly holding above annual lows. Sitting at a key support level $80. Too early to declare a trend reversal.

US 10 Year Treasury Yield [3.78%] Early indication of of peaking after bottoming in mid December 2008. Few points removed from annual highs of 4%.

Dear Readers:

The positions and strategies discussed on MarketTakers are offered for entertainment purposes only and are in no way intended to serve as personal investing advice. Readers should not make any investment decision without first conducting their own thorough due diligence. Readers should assume the editor holds a position in any securities discussed, recommended or panned. While the information provided is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed, nor can this publication be, in any Publish Post, considered liable for the future investment performance of any securities or strategies discussed.

Market Outlook | June 8th 2009

Weekly Results:

S&P 500 940.09 +2.28%

DJIA 8,763.13 +3.09%

NASDAQ 1,849.42 +4.23%

Russell 2000 530.l36 +5.74%

MSCI Emerging Markets 33.59 +1.73%

Mid Year Perspective:

Six months after a historic year, gauging key indicators appears like a guessing game. Most asset classes rearrange from severe levels. Therefore, conducting historical analysis alone is not sufficient . In addition, the lack of defined trends and pending policies contribute to a speculative environment. That said, overall sentiment is biased on the positive side. Interestingly, US 10 Year Treasury Yields, Crude and S&P 500 Index are trading near annual highs. However, recent optimism is mostly based on relative comparisons to points reached in October 2008 and March 2009. Yet, performance alone does not reflect recent capital erosion and reshuffling process of the financial sector.

In weeks ahead, a mild pullback is possible as investors examine the risk of staying invested versus profit taking. Of course, the ongoing rally continues to invite and entice sideline observers. For example, emerging markets outperformance presents solid uptrends . Similarly, major indices broke above 200 day moving averages creating a technical buzz. At the same time, bulls are attracted to Tech and resource based themes given relative leadership. Meanwhile, credit related areas are vulnerable and require additional improvement.

"The four-week flood of money into developing-nation stock funds that drove the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to an eight-month high is sending the strongest sell signal since equities peaked in October 2007. Inflows totaled $12 billion... the most since the 22-country benchmark hit its record high 19 months ago..." (Bloomberg – June 2009)

S&P 500 [940.09] Longer term charts suggest a sideway pattern between 800-1000. Major resistance around 1000 which should further test overall buyers conviction.

Crude [$68.44] Few points removed from annual highs of $70.32. Positive multi-month momentum.

Gold [$962] Trading near the higher end of all time trading range between 900 and 1000.

DXY – US Dollar [80.67] Index hit yearly lows at 78.33 on June 2^nd. Nonetheless, nearing an inflection point around 80. Favorable odds for a trend reversal.

US 10 Year Treasury Yield [3.82%] Friday marked a multi-month high in yields of 3.89%. Overbought in the near-term.

Dear Readers:

The positions and strategies discussed on MarketTakers are offered for entertainment purposes only and are in no way intended to serve as personal investing advice. Readers should not make any investment decision without first conducting their own thorough due diligence. Readers should assume the editor holds a position in any securities discussed, recommended or panned. While the information provided is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed, nor can this publication be, in any Publish Post, considered liable for the future investment performance of any securities or strategies discussed.

Market Notes | June 1, 2009

Weekly Results:
S&P 500 919.14 +3.47%
NASDAQ 1,774.33 +4.67%
Russell 2000 501.58 +4.23%
MSCI Emerging Markets 33.02 +4.44%

In the spring months, markets showcased some stability in a post panic period. Participants continue to witness the first recovery phase from dislocated ranges. This is visible in the behavior of Commodities, stocks and interest rates. Key indicators are recovering uniformly just like the synchronized declines of 2008. In the past three months, S&P 500 is up nearly 25% catching the attention of sideline investors. Since late December, Crude is up over 100 % and US 10 Year Treasury Yields rose nearly 84%. Interestingly, headline and legislative worries may not reflect sharp upside moves. So far this year, speculators have shown high tolerance for “risky” assets.

Levels:

S&P 500 [919.14] Intermediate-term improvement following March lows. Near-term pause developing between 880-920.

Crude [$66.31] Solid uptrend. Approaching next key resistance near $70 last reached in November. Positive momentum following a break above 200 day moving average.

Gold [ 975.50] Nearing a key psychological level at $1000. February highs of 989 is worth watching closely from a technical perspective.

DXY – US Dollar [80.43] Index is down over 11% after peaking in March 2009. Nearing key support around 80.

US 10 Year Treasury Yield [3.44 %] Multi-month rise is pausing. Lase few days, a sharp decline from highs of 3.74%. The sustainability of this trend will be tested in weeks ahead.

Meanwhile, investors weigh the creditability and sustainability of this inevitable bounce. Beyond performance, the long term outlook of credit conditions and government debt seem unresolved. In fact, charts suggest a pause in appreciation of risky assets and broad US indexes. Similarly, the downgrade of United Kingdom’s sovereign rating and GM’s bankruptcy can quickly change sentiment. Therefore, early summer sets the stage for possible sell-offs.

Commodities, Emerging Markets and Technology lead this current rally. Perhaps, leadership is shifting towards groups with less exposure to credit risk. On the other hand, interest rate sensitive themes such as Financials and Utilities are underperforming year to date. Once again, credit worries resurface. At this stage, taking speculative positions can be costly given increase in P/E ratio to 15.5 from 13.1. (Robert Shiller of Yale) Buying at current prices appears expensive especially for bargain hunters and value seekers. That said, momentum chasers and optimists face a decision between profit taking versus adding on pullbacks.

"Deleveraging means paying down debt instead of paying out dividends or buying in stock. Indeed, as the pick-up in equity financing indicates, it means issuing new shares. 'The growth rate in of earnings per share thus is likely to be worse than that indicated by profit margins alone,"(Smithers & Co)

Dear Readers:

The positions and strategies discussed on MarketTakers are offered for entertainment purposes only and are in no way intended to serve as personal investing advice. Readers should not make any investment decision without first conducting their own thorough due diligence. Readers should assume the editor holds a position in any securities discussed, recommended or panned. While the information provided is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed, nor can this publication be, in anyway, considered liable for the future investment performance of any securities or strategies discussed.

Weekly Results:

S&P 500 929.23 +5.89%

DJIA 8,574.65 +4.41%

NASDAQ 1,739.0 +1.15%

Russell 2000 511.82 +5.10%

MSCI Emerging Markets 31.30 +7.94%



Simply, an euphoric market reaction where surprises in expectation carry a heavier weight than headline concerns. Economic and corporate data alone does not fully reflect sentiment among participants. The market reminds us that unfathomable rewards are available during periods of panic. Yet, another twist and turn awaits when focus shifts away from headline worries. Although, policymakers are credited for market stabilization, another bubble might be forming given the increased supply of government securities. At this point, monitoring those dynamics can provide a better read on upcoming sentiment.

The performance of an equally weighted S&P 500 index reflects additional strength than visible in regular charts. In fact, on a relative strength basis, a bottoming process began to develop in late November. Similarly, US 10 year Treasury Yields and Crude are nearing annual highs which affirms a recovery process from previously dislocated financial markets. Clearly, 2008 presented a historic like sell-offs and panic driven responses. Now, a restoration process is in full gear especially with improving credit conditions.

Further demand for risky assets?

A similar messages are transmitted in equity, currency and fixed income markets. Investors continue to place their chips towards riskier assets. Clearly, greater willingness for risk and a rotation out of safe havens. For example, rise in US treasury partially signals less demand for government secured instruments. Also, Gold’s decline in the first quarter showcases less interest for exposure in a safer asset. From a currency standpoint, declining dollar is inversely correlated to equity markets.

S&P [929.23] Approaching a key target near 200 day moving average (954.80). New trading range forming between 840-980 range.

Crude [$58.63] Trading near annual highs which stands at $58.75. Since March 2009, Oil is outperforming Gold while lagging behind stock market returns.

Gold [ $907] Attempting to reaccelerate at current levels. Early indication of basing at $880 following multi-week declines from annual highs.

US 10 Year Yield [3.29%] A 5+ month upside move in yields. Major resistance at 3.50% which is near the average trading lever for 2008.

DXY – US Dollar Index [ 82.52] An 8% decline since March 4 highs. Index continues to underperform while making new annual lows.

Landscape and investor minds:

Now, investors are forced to either believe in the recent trend or take the opposite side of this optimism. In many ways, an inflection point is long awaited. Yet, timing is tricky and emotional. Some are frustrated after waiting for pullbacks to accumulate at cheaper prices. On the other hand, short players are not sensing adverse moves in momentum especially when gauging psychology. Picking themes in risky sectors has certainly been profitable. Based on current levels, aggressively buying here may not fit the optimal risk/reward set up. At this stage, this trade feels less appealing and more of the “herd like” approach.

Long-term investors are digesting the fundamental climate while estimating true strength of this market. Fear driven observers remain skeptical. Nonetheless, there are enough speculators seeking opportunities while cautiously awaiting the faith of volatility. In reality, not many participants are confident in understanding government intervention, reasons behind cycle breakdown and the lag effect of policies. Finally, taking a neutral stance is an option as well.

Market Notes | May 4, 2009

Weekly Results:

S&P 500 877.52 +1.30%

DJIA 8,212.41 +1.69%

NASDAQ 1,719.20 +1.47%

Russell 2000 486.98 +1.72%

MSCI Emerging Markets 28.99 +4.19%

Recent optimism

In this recent rally, global investors increased overall desire to speculate. Investor psychology and Federal Reserve actions provide clues to this multi-week recovery. Volatility remains in a six month downturn. Similarly, treasury yields continue to rise. Both factors confirm early optimism and suggest market stabilization. The shift towards risky assets benefits higher beta groups. For example, consumer, commodities and interest sensitive themes resulted in higher absolute returns. In addition, positive technicals in Technology and Consumer Discretionary indicates clues to new cycle leaders.

So far in 2009, NASDAQ is up 9% and few points removed from its 200 day moving average. That said, Gold peaked in late February 2009 and US Dollar topped in early March 2009. This illustrates an early rotation out of “safe” areas. Similarly, healthcare and staple witnessed sharp sell-offs. Now, the faith of this relationship (risky vs. defensive) will be tested on pending economic data and earnings announcements. Nonetheless, odds are increasing for a broad market pullback.

Clearly, a reshuffling period for managers and participants. Intervention and unclear guidance from policymakers create a semi-defined trend. Importantly, the Federal Reserve language determines investor psychology. At this point, anxiety is less visable but economic outlook is mixed. Therefore, one can expect more short-term oriented trading with higher turnover. At the same time, patience is required for value seekers especially when evaluating groups related to credit.

Macro Levels:

S&P 500 [877.52] Recent uptrend is approaching resistance levels between 880 and 960 (near the 200 day moving average).

Crude [$53.20] Positive trend intact as the index remains above $48. Crude closed below previous highs of $54.66 reached on March 26.

Gold [$884.50] A 3+ month downtrend continues as Gold broke below $900. Mostly a sell-off driven by a movement towards risky assets.

DXY – US Dollar [84.54] Nearly, a two month decline following a 1 + year run that began in March 2008.

US 10 Year Treasury Yield [3.16%] Broke above 3% and heading towards 50 day average of 3.34%. Yields bottomed at the end of 2008. Investors await for the second stage of rising yields.

Dear Readers:

The positions and strategies discussed on MarketTakers are offered for entertainment purposes only and are in no way intended to serve as personal investing advice. Readers should not make any investment decision without first conducting their own thorough due diligence. Readers should assume the editor holds a position in any securities discussed, recommended or panned. While the information provided is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed, nor can this publication be, in anyway, considered liable for the future investment performance of any securities or strategies discussed.