Monday, September 04, 2006

Volatility- worth a look here in September


VIX and VXN : Following turbulent sell off’s in May both volatility indexes continue to decline. This behavior illustrates low implied volatility, creating bargain opportunities in the option markets. (Note: calendar spread might be a timely strategy- will follow up this week- buy longer duration and high volatility with shorter timeframe).

“The last time the absolute pricing of implied volatility was as low as this was in 1993, but interest rates were much lower then, 3% instead of 5%. Since options have been listed, I don't think there's ever been this kind of opportunity on a relative basis between option pricing and interest rates. The bear market was a long time ago -- four years ago -- and the market hasn't had a 10% decline in over three years, and people have gotten a little lazy and forgotten what it's like to have a downturn” – Barrons article.


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