Friday, October 13, 2006

PALM- (trade revisited)


PALM: Bouncing off strong support around $14. Apparent buyers when stock trades $12-14 range -- a level that has offered buying opportunity. This is exhibited in the weekly chart coinciding with a bottoming momentum.
Above $14, stock remains attractive given recent correction and heavy sell-off from April highs of $24. Despite broad technology rally and competitors RIMM exceptional upside move - PALM clearly lagged the sector but showing a bottoming signal.
Street appears too bearish on this name. -And there is opportunity from what appears to be over pessimism. 7 buys/ 8 holds/ 2 sells -
Company has : No debt and $4.82 excess cash, and upcoming buyback of $250mil.
Extreme oversold reading in the weekly data presents an attractive opportunity a long position.

Sunday, October 08, 2006

Avaya: Worth a look


Although, CSCO –gets the front cover and positive mention on Barrons; I have noticed AV on the positive momentum list.

In the same article the following was mentioned on AV.

Sticking to the discipline: Positive weekly momentum and a breakout from recent range make this name attractive.

Building momentum given the fundamental action on this group. Not fresh or timely idea as a trade here but actionable on pullbacks.

Worth adding to a watch list. postive above $10- use as exit....but for longer-term investors actionable.

All this said , same goes for csco - the leader in the group.

DD: attractive basing pattern

DD: Since 2000 stock trades in a narrow range between $50-40.

Aattractive consolidation pattern: suggesting a favorable odds for a pending breakout above $50. An upside move above $50 can trigger upside momentum.

Longer-term bet and might carry an opportunity cost of capital. A set up for an attractive reward given an emerging cyclical theme. (Chemicals and other large cap basic materials/industrials).

Near-term entry point: after a run up from $40-44--- not timely but at early stages of recovery. Not a trade but a 3-6 months play with an exit at $40.

fundamentals outlook: lower raw material costs and higher average prices will offset softening demand, and also thinks the stock is modestly undervalued. **JP Morgan comments**

I also like this name because of a value like approach and nice to have those names in the portfolio in an uncertain / less trending market.

Monday, October 02, 2006

Beta short / Long VIX

Chart Explanation:
Blue: Beta index (OSX, SOX, HUI and XBD)


Black: VIX Index:

Takeaway: Since 2003 as volatility declined; beta related themes appreciated.
Further Thoughts:
Equally weighted beta index suggests that oil services, brokers and gold stocks have all contributed to significant upside move. These groups have outperformed other areas in the marketplace. But leadership will be challenged.
We are at key junction as volatility remains oversold and due for recovery. Chart suggest in the upcoming months shorting beta themes might be worthwhile. OSX has shown recent declines tied with Oil weakness in the past few weeks. Brokers have had a sharp run up and benefited greatly in the low interest rate environment. Earnings were positive, but not sure if higher expectations await. Plus various strategies in the marketplace might be too crowded with similar tactics in minimizing risk. Therefore, beta index glory days of outperformance are worth a sharp look. As liquidity is drained out of the marketplace with rising rates from central banks, beta strategies risk or at least the game might change. Any change leads to uncertainty - not to be confused with general risk. Uncertainty caused turbulence which can result in a rising VIX - As commodity related themes reshuffle their outlook and hedge funds restructure their strategies – this can cause a shift in the market place.

Trim / short - Bank holdings - Oct 3, 2006

BKX Index: Showing signs of slowing with peaking momentum at these levels.

Strong run since Oct 2005 -(given new fed announcment)

Use Sep 29 highs as resitance level -of 114.

Vulnerable area in the market place - and usually has served as a good gaudge for broader market direction.

Stock specific area worth a note here as we start october -

Saturday, September 30, 2006

Revisiting lenders short…..AHM (American Home Mortgage Investment Corp)

Revisiting lenders short…..AHM (American Home Mortgage Investment Corp)

AP STORY READS LIKES THIS:

The long-expected first sign of cracks in the mortgage loan market may have surfaced this week, as the Mortgage Bankers Association issued their quarterly report on home loan foreclosures.

MBA said Wednesday that loans entering foreclosure during the second quarter rose 29 percent from the first quarter. While analysts have long anticipated an uptick in mortgage defaults, Merrill Lynch analyst Kenneth Bruce said this report may mark the beginning of an era of weaker credit.

Lets make it actionable:

Revisiting the fundamental short on credit lenders as highlighted several times. A short which materialized heavily on HRB’s earnings announcements last month.

NOW….actionable trade with an attractive risk/reward enables us to short AHM.
Assuming that the recent rally in September is not sustainable.

AHM – stock has run up recently from $30-35 range – as October begins, here is a shorting opportunity given the overbought momentum levels. Timely entry point, in a fundamental biased call.

Looking for an attractive risk/reward trade here along with macro declines heading into earnings season. Also, a rising yield can help the case with further econ #’s pending especially this Friday. – Worthwhile, to get ahead of the trade despite attempted recovery.

Other names in that space also worth a consideration but at this point recommending short on AHM – trim candidate for long-term investors. (FED, BKUNA, CFC )

Additional industry perspective:

"This is the first sign of meaningful weakening in the prime mortgage space," Bruce wrote in a note to clients Thursday. "A downturn in credit may be just around the corner."

What does this mean for mortgage lenders? If consumers start defaulting on mortgages, investors who buy mortgages in the secondary market through loan-backed bonds will lose their appetite for risky loans. Mortgage lenders will then either make less profit when they sell their loans through securitizations or be stuck with portfolios of undesirable loans.

Wednesday, September 27, 2006

MKT THOUGHTS 9-27-2006

Looking at the BKX index - Approaching -May 8th highs - a full recovery from the equity sell-off.
May critical resistance level, given BKX weakness has been an indication for the broader market.
It works key barometer of the market given the dominance of financials in the S&P 500.

Technology :focused on three shorts that offer beta: AMD, NVDA and WFR.- A near-term trade.

Decline in commodities markets has fueled a return back to bonds sparking this near-term rally. A defensive rotation that compiled staples and healthcare to move higher. Nickel for some reason has survived the storm.

Saturday, September 23, 2006

Crude Factors

1) Global central bankers are lifting interest rates in unison, and slowly draining global liquidity.

2) Beijing is tightening its grip on the yuan money supply, leading to exaggerated fears of a hard landing for China's economy.

3) Crude oil traders unwound a $15 per barrel Iranian "war premium" after Europe's big-3 signaled a split from the Bush administration's campaign for UN economic sanctions against Iran.

4) Weaker crude oil prices triggered a rout in the gold and silver markets.


Gary Dorsch: http://safehaven.com/article-5916.htm

Crude: Search for Support


Crude: Accumulate closer to 58-60/ in the next two + week.

A sharp decline from 77 to 61 ---clearly catches the attention of both bull and bears. Given a bearish stance on crude, I am glad to see this decline. I must say as a rational investor this downside action is highly surprising.

Near-term recovery pending as stated last week but clearly buyers are stepping away and selling near-term bounces. At this stage, looking for consolidation with worst case scenario of $58.

One has to look at current levels closer to February 2006 and October 2005 levels to get a clearer long-term perspective.

Again crude did go from 20 – 70 and that move is still intact. I wonder if the summer mid-east conflict was a key contributor to a climbing irrational move closer to$77.

Perhaps, $68 is the key resistance level and $58-60 is an area of interest in the next two weeks.

Net/Net: Next two weeks I would stay away from this trade and find further downside extremes. Then one can step in and accmulate or bail out of a trap.

Wednesday, September 20, 2006

Commodity vs Stocks: 9-20-2006



Oil has declined over 20 % in the summer. Tech and Consumer related names have recovered signifgantly since the July lows. There has been a rotation into technology.

Tech, consumer and financials dominate the US markets and early signs of rotation out of commodities and into stocks.

Chart demonstrates recent sell of in Oil and Gold - and the recent diveragence. Woth a look:

Black: CRB VS SPX Red: Real Price SPX Blue: Real Price CRB Index

Tuesday, September 19, 2006

Small Cap : Ideas and methodology

Consolidating patterns: TIBX, USTI, CMTL, VSEA, SONS, BRCD, and MDCO.
Questions to ask.
Are we hoping for breakouts? Are these value traps.
Attractive risk/reward: extremes that can be exploited :

Momentum Extremes: CYMI, ATHR, WGO, RATE, BCEN, CENT, ECLP, KYPH, AMMD.
Questions to ask.
After acknowledging oversold weekly momentum; are these names all worth taking the risk/reward

Leadership Momentum: MW and PSSI

Questions to ask.
What are the risks of sticking with momentum names? Any reason

Sunday, September 17, 2006

Early rotation to tech:

Further upside move in the markets clearly shown by advancers expanding from 57,318 to 176,522 in CBOE put/call data. Looking for pullbacks this week in tech/retail related themes.

Coming into September, I was looking for further upside move in the VIX - but volatility has been tame in this upside move.

Clearly, the fed speak day will offer further uncertainty and volatility. A decline in VIX from 14-11 is visible in near-term charts.

CHART: Last week clearly tech rally continues exhibited by acceleration in semis. OSX - sluggish performance continues and this inverse correlation is shown in the above charts.
Rotation into tech out of commodity related names.

Decline in crude: a theme which has worked and due for a near-term recovery.


Thursday, September 14, 2006

mkt thoughts - ahead of CPI and FED

Broadly speaking: Weekly momentum remains positive from deeply oversold levels. Near-term pullbacks pending but how much downside does the anticipated downside move offer?

Rotation out of defensive themes Since the May's correction, defensive themes have outperformed XLG - (top 50) outperformed most groups in the market by recovering 9% since July 18th low. ` further on Large Cap out performance like the Dow Jones + 7% YTD.
In the past few weeks further confirmation of beta related rally. Further showcased by weakening relative strength iin utilities and Consumer Staples.

Searching overdone themes:

Recovery in Tech and Consumer - Along with other severely underperforming sub-groups. (like homebuilders, retailers etc).

Approaching upcoming 'daily sell' might be an an opportunity to reiterate working themes
Given the abundance of attractive charts, perhaps focusing on established leaders with strong relative strength can identify quality names. For example in technology...DRIV, ATML, ASML, MU, AKAM, WEBX, ORCL, CTSH, and VARI.

Plenty of Econ data approaching along with Fed decisions. And the start of earning season can all create shifts in Macro/broad market behavior. Making sectors themes even more significant.

Sunday, September 10, 2006

TIVO: another media / NFL theme

TIVO: continuing on a media theme. Attractive pattern similar to DTV. $6-8 range for many days but a long worth sticking to with an exit at $6. Wheather playing the options market for a tight range in the near-term the bias of an upside move is attractive. Worthwile going long in this range while accumulating on any pullbacks and let the market figure out the rest.



Fool.com---

Go long, TiVo
The new pro football season kicked off on Thursday night. Earlier in the day, I had written about TiVo's (NASDAQ:TIVO)new service for fantasy football junkies. The DVR pioneer had teamed up with Sportsline.com -- a CBS(NYSE:CBS) online property -- to offer stats and other goodies to participants of its fantasy football leagues.

DTV: Direct TV- building stregth.


DTV:

As the NFL season is officially underway; many recognize Direct TV for the Sunday NFL package. Well, chart has built up with a strong relative performance and worth a look in media space.

Breakdown: Break above a multi-year trading range between $14-18. Difficult to find growth especially in small cap. Volume building positively here and despite strong recent price appreciation, - add to pullbacks.

Cable remains a competition but a theme Wall Street neglected and will play catch up to the buyers from earlier this spring.

Net/Net: attractive risk reward on pullbacks closer to 18. - An investment long with an exit around 16.50 with Major support at 14.



Thursday, September 07, 2006

JBLU and Crude: Inverse Trade


JBLU: Black; Crude: Blue.

Crude declined in October-Dec in 2004 and 2005 in the last quarter of the year.

At the same time, JBLU rallies higher. Although, early in the fall trade worth a look and accumulate on weakness with exit at 9. Continue to build on strength towards $12-14 level.

Of course JBLU has company specific risk while crude has began its summer correction.

Wednesday, September 06, 2006

NVDA: near-term short


NVDA: Short closer to the 22 -23 level given a strong run in the near-term. A tech name that offers high beta
  • Momentum weakness : following a strong recovery since the summer lows, watch for recovery stalling
  • Above both 200 and 50 day mva.
  • Rally on weak volume

Monday, September 04, 2006

Volatility- worth a look here in September


VIX and VXN : Following turbulent sell off’s in May both volatility indexes continue to decline. This behavior illustrates low implied volatility, creating bargain opportunities in the option markets. (Note: calendar spread might be a timely strategy- will follow up this week- buy longer duration and high volatility with shorter timeframe).

“The last time the absolute pricing of implied volatility was as low as this was in 1993, but interest rates were much lower then, 3% instead of 5%. Since options have been listed, I don't think there's ever been this kind of opportunity on a relative basis between option pricing and interest rates. The bear market was a long time ago -- four years ago -- and the market hasn't had a 10% decline in over three years, and people have gotten a little lazy and forgotten what it's like to have a downturn” – Barrons article.


Saturday, September 02, 2006

Jack Dreyfus- Two Rules

JD: I had two rules. One was not to pound the table because if you pound the table and say, “We have to do this or do that,” you put yourself in the position of not being able to retreat because you’re too proud to let go. You have to be able to cut your losses!

The second rule was to treat your investment money as if it is your mother’s money — not someone else’s mother’s money! I thought that if investors thought of it as their mother’s money they would make decisions based on their own best instinct, rather than listen to stock advisors or others.

Friday, September 01, 2006

How to read options values and prices?

How to read options values and prices? September 1, 2006

Unlike stocks, options have an expiration date. Unless a company goes bankrupt or buys back all its stock, the stock investor always has the choice to wait for a price correction. Sometimes that wait represents the triumph of hope over experience, but more on that elsewhere.

That expiration date makes calculating an option’s value more complicated, but also more accessible to some of the powerful statistical tools developed over the last few decades.

Two of the more common methods for evaluating options involve measuring their intrinsic value and their time value.

The ‘intrinsic value’ is the amount by which the option’s strike price is ‘in-the-money’. Strike price is the contractually set price at which the underlying asset would be bought or sold, if the option were exercised. ‘In-the-money’ means the strike price is lower (for a call option) and higher (for a put option) than the current market price.

For call options: IV = Asset Market Price – Call Strike Price

Since options have an expiration date, but are purchased on some prior date their value changes as the expiration date nears. That change in time results in a decay of the value of the option as a trading instrument.

An option with two days remaining is generally worth less than one that gives the investor three months to act. At expiration the option is either in-the-money, in which case profits are possible, or it’s out-of-the-money and the investor incurs a potential loss.

Time value is the amount by which the price of an option exceeds its intrinsic value.

For call options: TV = Call Premium – Intrinsic Value

[For put options:

IV = Put Strike Price – Asset Market Price

TV = Put Premium – Intrinsic Value

Note: The ‘premium’ is simply the cost of the call or put.]

For options that are ‘at-the-money’ (strike price = current price), or ‘out-of-the-money’ (strike price higher/lower (call/put) than current market price) the option has no intrinsic worth at that time. It only acquires value in so far as the market price can change, i.e. it has only time value.

For example, suppose MSFT (Microsoft) has a current market price per share of $27 for a June 30 call. The ‘30′ refers to the strike price, not the expiration date. If the premium is $2, the option is out-of-the-money - since: $27 - ($30 + $2) = -$5.

I.e. if you bought the call and exercised it immediately you’d lose five dollars (plus commission costs).

Since, the option has no intrinsic value (negative intrinsic value isn’t allowed), why would anyone execute such a trade?

Because an out-of-the-money is less expensive than one in the money and the further out-of-the money the cheaper it is. There are many trading strategies that utilize this fact as a hedge or for potential profit. Given a three month period, the market price may well rise to more than cover the premium and produce a profit. That’s what makes option

Wednesday, August 30, 2006

Timeout Discussion:

Timeout Discussion:

no more ill advised shots: shorting leadership names, speculating heavily, reactionary bets.

Too early to take 3pts....march is not here yet and not playing with the houses money yet so run that motion offense.

avoid turnovers: no need to rush down the court with out a set offense... focus on quarterly bets ....if not sure pass the ball or sit on the sidelines. Very costly.

Stay calm in full court press: see how long the press will last and lets slowly break it up.


Go to the big man inside: focus on large cap less beta names just to be invested and take higher parentage shots.
Focus on defense: gotta play both side of the court...when shots are not falling and you are in a whole you gotta start with strong/focused defense. keeps you in the game.

Tuesday, August 29, 2006

Sep- market view: Searching for Extremes

Looking to exploit extremes:

Lack of extremes can perhaps explain the challenge of market timing.

Themes and sectors:Tech and Consumer have favorable odds for recovery. Managers "gotta" play these names to get a recovery mileage. And sensible odds/valuation or even oversold plays.As for rate sensitive themes....Banks/Brokers: any upside move should provide advantageous short opportunity:

(BKX- has been working since OCT 05). Not cheap by fundamental standards.
An area of high interest is shorting banks; specifically RKH Index has failed into key rally into key resistance. Tops for the year: May 5 and August 4 again at 155 level.Highly satisfied with mortgage related shorts since this summer:. NEW - short, CFC- weakness, Now brokers like LEH/MS - mortgage exposure can hurt here in the near-term. -- Cover shorts as consensus mania is stepping in.Shorting housing stocks might be overdone from a logical perspective. But psychology little bit left in some areas.NFI- broke down on signifivatn volume, any strength can be shorted. Crude:
USO (crude etf)short on near-term strength. Although, a cycle winner since 2003, further pullbacks are needed.
Interested in a seasonal play -Any upside move caused by hurricane fears can be exploited by shorting further strength above $72.

JBLU- an inverse play of shorting crude. Attractive risk/reward here with a $10 exit.Overdone shorts? / Value Traps:

Certainly not thrilled with the odds of shorting here than homebuilders or some restaurants.Finally, sticking to the game plan of exploiting extremes not much offered on the table. Not many extremes offered in the market place. And sitting on the sidelines appears attractive here for few weeks.
Again, the lack of extremes can perhaps explain the challenge of market timing.

Saturday, August 26, 2006

Tech Ideas (pre-labor day week)

MSTR: Following recent recovery to $90- stock is overbought near-term

A short candidate at $90 exit at 92 closer to the 200 day mva. With reward levels 85, best case 80.

Despite price recovery from summer lows, intermediate-term downtrend in tact along with overbought daily momentum.

WFR: Quarterly recovery in recent trading action: (watch near-term behavior as a pullback name for Q$).

Looking for pullbacks at $33- chasing long trade here not timely, but FUNDI- support case. Q4 attractive set up.

NVDA: Like the intermediate-term but near-term short.


Trade: Short for pullbacks from 26-22.

Investment: Following pullbacks add for Q4 recovery corresponding with positive recent fundamentals.

BGC: a rare working momentum stock that has outperformed the market/sector.

Up over 160% since Q4 2006. (a cable play).

Looking for short here after recent highs of 39.50. (exit point)-

Reward: 50 day at 33.- any disappointment in this name is a valuable short play.

Defined exit of 39.50 helps manage the trade.

RBAK- use weakness to add – an idea for Q4.

Shopping for Q4.

Shopping for Q4.

Well, Homebuilders mentioned earlier. A decline in Sep can offer even a bigger recovery.

In the consumer discretionary space, homebuilders are the highest beta space.

Retail: Beaten up summarizes the story in Q2/Q3- but value traps are being set up in areas from stores to restaurants


Deep value search has to be justified with the Macro call. And currently not a timely trading short but a time too look for attempted bottoms or further downside extortion.

Regardless- an area of interest for Q4 rally especially higher beta names.


















































































































































Follow up on credit shorts---

Credit Related: (Housing related stocks)

Barron’s: An article examining the “overdone” sell-off in housing. I like the discussion but rather wait into Q4. As a bear this sep/early October can be rewarding to short select groups. Although, I agree with waiting for strength in homebuilders give the extreme oversold conditions. Fundamentalists are certainly interested here and given the beta of some names like TOL-a strong recovery can help managers Alpha.

Negative Housing perhaps becoming too fashionable of a story on Wall St.

Homebuilders have corrected since August 2005 and have given up close to 40%+ of their value.

REITS: Mortgage Lenders are vulnerable but a tricky play in finding the right name in the group.

Some brokers have expanded to the mortgage business and remain a question mark.

LEH and BSC- remain shorts to consider on a timely fashion.

I am interested in LEH short in the near-term .

Trading Evaluation

• Did the trade's chart pattern conform to the criteria in our plan?


• Did the market as a whole support the direction of the trade we chose? (Every equity trader should have some clear rules about this in his or her trading plan, with a specific set of market criteria to cross-reference.)


• Were the precise entry requirements fully met, thereby legitimately triggering our participation in the trade? (I can't tell you how many students of mine confess to being overly anticipatory in their trading, entering a whole host of positions that never really triggered.)


• Did we hesitate once the entry requirements were met and then find ourselves chasing the trade?


• Did we use the proper position size for the trade, according to our rules?

• Did we locate our stop loss for the trade in the correct place?


• Did we obey the stop loss? (This is probably the most important issue of all. If we make too many errors in this department, we are bound for an early exit from our trading career.)


• Did we allow our position to fall (rise) all the way to the stop loss, or did we pre-empt it? (While this is not as serious as the issue above, there are traders who constantly eject themselves from perfectly good trades on the slightest hiccup, dramatically changing their overall trading odds.)


• Once the trade started to move in the desired direction, did we implement a trailing stop loss, and if so did we place it correctly?


• Were our targets for the trade chosen with a healthy reward-to-risk ratio in mind?


• Were those targets placed correctly based on support/resistance considerations?


• Did we hold the position all the way until we reached our targets, or did we take profits early?


• Did we add more position size once the trade was underway, either by averaging up or down? If so, was this allowed under our rules?

Dow Jones: Similarity 2002: (Mid-term Election Year)

Dow Jones: Similarity 2002: (Mid-term Election Year)

Amazing discovery in the chart patterns of the last Mid Term Elections.

After peaking in May 2002 and a failed recover in the summer, DJ Index topped on August 17, 2002. A major decline in Q3 02 setting the lows October in a Mid-Term presidential cycle.

Repeat? Easy to conclude from a recent historical observation but never hurts to recognize past performance.

Clearly just stating the similarity in seasonal patterns.







Untitled Attachment

Don't let S&P 500 fool you

SPX:

Over 50 % of stocks in the S&P 500 Index are highly influenced by the top 50 Mega Cap.

A key detail to recognize when analyzing US markets. Looking at the RSP (S&P equally weighted index) one can observer the down trend

Defensive leadership and shift towards higher liquidity serve as reasonable for explain the S&P strength following a broad market correction on May 2006.

Wednesday, August 23, 2006

General Thoughts for today: 8-23-2006

General Thoughts for today:

Last week winners this weak shorts.- driven by oversold rally and a positive translation of CPI/PPI.

Two-three day rally from last week now offers attractive trading shorts as stocks hit key resistance levels.

More apparent in tech and retail.

Technology: QLGC, LRCX, WDC.- In Retail you have tgt, bby, etc.


In financials: Certainly the XBD

Aug 4 highs for the xbd as well. 219 level a very key res levelCan short all the way to 50 day ma of 208. A sideway mkt can make the short rather neutral but momentum still decling from overbought level.

Overall, would love to pile the shorts aggressively across the board but not that clearly defined yet. SPX: 1292- some gauge of support in the near-term.

Thursday, August 17, 2006

Resitance Lev

SPX: has recovered 2/3 from its lows suggesting upside move reward is limited. While 1300 remains key resistance level especially with high reading in the open interest data.

1297 finish slightly below with option expatriation coming up. Rather short Friday and thesis seems back in gear.

Beta related themes: Have been deeply oversold and about 1/3 recovery from July lows. Example includes Russell Small Cap where less liquid names have underperformed.

Given that data, the sideway market action continues despite strong argument from bulls the past two days.

Markets remains oversold especially given the intermediate-term moment data. And near-term entry point is not that attractive.

SOX- has been so beaten up, potentially opening up an opportunity for an upside move back to the 200 day mva.
Same theme in OSX, other tech related themes, Small Cap- less liquid names and beta related themes.

Brokers and gold related themes looks attractive among the beta themes but will be looking for shorts.

Tuesday, August 15, 2006

Defensive themes:

Staples breaking out CPB, GIS, KR, SWY, K , CVS, WAG, PEP, CL, TAP, CSG and UST.

Banks pulling back but holding in for the most part.

Select Pharam: MRK, FRX, JNJ, KOSP, and ABT. PPH- continues its run.
Utilities continue to work in the near-term: DYN, WMB, AYE, AEP, CNP, CMS, D, EIX and ETR.Others include: FPL, PCG, SRP, RRI TXU and XEL.
Tech that stood out: BMC, ORCL, INTU, FISV.Media: not as strong and not clear if defensive. CMCSA and CVC- leading the pack.
Telco: CZN, TWTC, Q, and VZ- working. Other parts are mixed.

Sunday, August 13, 2006

Mid August Gameplan

Time to press on credit related and broker shorts themes. NEW, CFC, TOL, FED, etc.

'Pound the table' on these shorts while the market continues its consolidating phase.

Begin to plan ahead for potential rate cuts in the upcoming winter.- An inverse behaviour of long/shorts in current state.

Two questions: Gold as shelter play and value bargains of US retail and technology names.

Soft landing economic expectations can be miscalculated. Truth yet to be realized while overall consensus has stuck to that story.

Overall, bearish view might have been triggered in thoughts of traders/mangers making it actionable.

Geopolitical tension can be an additional contributes to a slowdown in equities.

Finding Misplacing of overbought names is a difficult screen given correction since May. - Since amost groups have corrected

So shorting the weak is the right approach despite the beaten up levels and value trap is worth avoiding especially at this junction of the macro outlook.

Market timing is more critical than stock picking due to a cycle shift in markets. Rising oil prices, rate factors and weak economy. Housing and labor all contribute to grim periods ahead but markets think ahead so the timing of both has its disconnect. Elections can trigger a nationalistic moment of reflection which can lead to investor reactions.

Wednesday, August 09, 2006

Credit Risk- Market View - Great reads

Rates sensitive themes continue to struggle as continuation of the FOMC sentiment. Credit worry as long awaited is finally being recognized on wall street.

Downside move Led by homebuilders and mortgage lender weakness. CFC, LEND, TOL etc. Credit related themes continue to be at risk despite the positive analyst consensus on the street.

  • Competition may get tougher. Wall Street firms, including Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Bear Stearns Cos., are emerging as bigger rivals in home-mortgage lending, expanding beyond their business of creating and trading in mortgage securities. "They don't know anything about the mortgage business, which makes them a dangerous competitor," Mr. Mozilo said. These firms "have no hesitation about paying two or three times what we would pay personnel because they're used to the big bucks."--WSJ

  • For years, it was surprising that higher energy and commodity prices didn't produce much overall inflation. That was because commodities make up less than 15% of costs to business. Labor costs were held in check. Now, the cost of labor per unit of output is rising faster than overall inflation. That squeezes profit margins and puts pressure on companies to raise prices.
  • S&P: 1250-1280 range continues to be a level to watch in the near-term: overall daily extended and due for further pullbacks. Weekly oversold indicator is not working and in danger of falling back to negative territory.
  • Beta index showing that an additional downside move is needed before a change in sentiment.
  • Gold: see further downside move: GLD closer to 62 level.
  • Rates: 10 year attempting to hold 4.87%.
  • Crude: 77.95 resistances.
  • Financials continue to offer plenty of shorting opportunity. Continuing shorts on banks/brokers : MS, SCHW, AMTD- shorts here.
  • Search for value names in deeply oversold areas but not a timely entry point.
  • Defensive names might offer shelter but not a sure bet.
  • Soft commodities a theme worth revisiting.

A great conclusion from Financialsense.com: http://www.financialsense.com/Market/barbera/2006/0808.html

History strongly suggests that while Energy stocks, Utility stocks and Consumer Household Product “Staple” Stocks can be defensive at various times there are a few concepts that stand out. They are:

1. During the course of most bear markets, the end stages of a bear where there is panic, liquidation can take these groups down very harshly causing them to give back a good deal of the defensive gains they may have accrued during the broader equity bear market. In essence, if a bear market continues for too long a period of time, as in the 1973 to 1974 and 2000-2002 bear markets, these stocks have a tendency to give up the ghost and succumb to the selling pressures in the final stages of the bear.

2. If one of these groups is deeply depressed going into a bear market and has for several months or years been out of sync with the broad market (underperforming) there is a good chance it will shine in a down market and live up to its defensive potential.

3. Ultra-tight Fed policy and very high real rates makes it almost impossible for any of these groups to perform well, so at some point, the switch from defensive names to cash is necessary if the Fed appears intent on strangling the economy.

4. None of these groups really holds up well in a crash, with the possible exception of Utility stocks, which in years prior had big dividends. Today, the new equivalent might be the Energy Trusts which frequently sport ultra-high dividend yields as many utilities now only pay mediocre returns.

5. Gold Stocks tend to have the strongest non-correlation to the market but will only hold up and perform well if the price of gold itself is gaining momentum and showing tenacity in the face of whatever economic event is driving the bear market. If Gold rolls over, the Gold Stocks can very quickly turn into a high risk proposition and can very quickly give back accumulated gains.

Tuesday, August 08, 2006

Big Picture Thoughts and FOMC Trades

Watch for names that rallied on decling volume
Indexes appraching resitance level from July highs
Short-term momentum indicators remain overbought.Despite postive indcation from the weekly momentum, not convicend on the sustainablity of the run.

FOMC: Trading Ideas:

Long QQQQ around 2pm/ Short RKH at 3-3:30pm.

Nasdaq too beaten up/ Banks extended : Pair Trade.

Watch for names that rallied on decling volume
Indexes appraching resitance level from July highs
Short-term momentum indicators remain overbought.Despite postive indcation from the weekly momentum, not convicend on the sustainablity of the run.

FOMC: Trading Ideas:

Long QQQQ around 2pm/ Short RKH at 3-3:30pm.

Banks

Short lived rally! And like the view of selling into strength.
BKX: Daily momentum appears to be extended. Following a 10-12% upside move since Q4 2005, this is not an attractive risk/reward point. At least not favorable odds for a timely entry point.
Watch a key resistance level on the bkx of may highs at 113.73 on May 8. Even a breakout above that level further extended recent rally which started on Oct 2005.
I know one should not fight the fed, but the news appears to be discounted and rather a non-event.Risk: Defensive themes in the markets have been working and on a relative basis banks might not be as a bad on pullbacks

Ahead of the FED

Well, FOMC meeting ahead: My mind and gut tell me "it is all noise nothing new" while plenty of the outcome appears to be discounted..Near-term fools can swim in the volatility of markets but in the post noise era I will be revisiting the shorts.Would continue to short beta themes: OSX, HUI, XBD and even SOX selectively. If long only manager accumulate defensive themes; pharma, telco, utilities etc....If an absolute return guy, i would be highly stock specific or just focus on shorts.Wait 3 months before considering longs as history has shown. Generally, markets should rally 3 months following the last rate hike. --

Wednesday, August 02, 2006

Quick Long Thoughts-- (if any)

Stocks of Interest:

AMT/CCI: any upcoming catalyst for these names following recent run. Positive daily momentum remains in tact for these names.

Both above 50 and 200 day showing signs of leadership but attractive buys on pullbacks.

GPRO: consolidating in the $50-54 range. Momentum upturn.

DNA: trying to form a bottom within the range of $78-80. A better buy closer to 78 a longer-term buy idea worth waiting for a breakout with exit slightly below $78.

ATRS: clearly a strong run recently, a name worth revisiting on pullbacks. Bottoming intermediate-term any pullbacks near 18 level can offer a buying opportunity.

Sunday, July 30, 2006

GOLD YEILD and MARKETS

10 year Yield: after peaking on jun 28 further declines continue, while next support remains at 4.94.

Gold: 600 supports – appears extended versus other moving averages.

SPX: 1240-1280 range remains key following sell off from May highs. 1280 can continue to serve as a resistance level


Tuesday, July 25, 2006

One question:

One question:

A. Mkt rally starts now and continues further into labor day.
B. Mkt rally fails now and then recovers in 2.5 weeks
C. Mkt rally works now and then fails 2.5 weeks later.
D. Sideways...sideways....up/down...sideways.- just sideways.
E. None of the above too volatile.
F. I don't care leave me the F*** alone.

Strategy Summary:

Expect continued market volatility as the rest of earnings and FOMC meeting 2.5 weeks from now

Near-term momentum becoming oversold creating a high-risk trading opportunity of higher beta names—(with a cautious approach to news sensitive names).
OSX , HUI and XBD- areas to explore.

Shelter for uncertainty: Attempt to accumulate defensive leadership stocks on any near-term pullbacks.

AES, AYE, TXU, OKE, PPL, FE, CVS, KR, SWY, CBP, AZN, MRK, SGP, BMY, INTU, CMI and UTX--- few names to watch for on pullbacks.

Looking beyond two weeks: Position out of speculative trading names and take a defensive / cash stance on portfolio especially ahead of FOMC meeting.

Sunday, July 23, 2006

market outlook: last week of july 06

Market Outlook:

  • Earnings will create a boom/bust response adding to volatility but already a negative start but heavily stock specific.
  • Markets are becoming oversold making shorts here not as timely....but macro effects here can create distracting noise.
  • Rather trade in near-term here than making investments....use pending strength to trim out of long positions.

CBH: a short worth revisiting following a recovery around 200 day mva. Overall, short on any strength despite oversold levels.

AFL/AIG: appear to be a similar theme like HMO's where attempted recovery from weakness YTD: performance.

AFL reporting on tuesday- oversold here to be shorted heavily but a negative bias market is a tough call here.



The defensive themes:

DJ: decline back to 35 level, monthly key support worth taking a shot.Still awaiting to consider the value bet in traditional media names.

PPH - worth a revisit and run all names in the index. Again BMY/SGP of interst here before earnings. Plenty of pharma names.

utilities strength continues along with staples as the defensive relative leadership remains in tact. Not convinced to jump on this train as a long idea. But curious on pharma as the defensive theme.

10 year yield: correcting in the near-term while weekly suggest further downside....perhaps around 5%.
Gold: appears to be extended in the near-tem, further downside potntial with support around 600 level.
DXY: attempting to bottom
Crude: looking for correction closer to 70 level. following recent highs of 77. momentum suggesting

currency notes and things to watch for:

The upside risks to inflation are clear but at the same time, so are the risks that the economy faces. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for August 8th, which is only 2.5 weeks away. This means that the short list of economic releases between now and then will not only be even more important for traders to watch, but could also bring about more volatility. This includes the personal consumption expenditures index and the Q2 employment cost index, which will shed more light on the inflation outlook along with consumer confidence, durable goods, advance Q2 GDP, ISM and Non-Farm payrolls.

week ahead : last week of July 06

There are several economic reports of note and a number of significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.

Economic reports for the week include:

Mon. - None of note

Tues. - Consumer Confidence, Existing Home Sales, Richmond Fed Index

Wed. - Fed’s Beige Book

Thur. - Durable Goods Orders, Initial Jobless Claims, New Home Sales

Fri. - Advance 2Q GDP, Advance 2Q GDP Price Index, Advance 2Q Personal Consumption, Advance 2Q PCE Core, 2Q Employment Cost Index, Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence

Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:

Mon. - Alcon(ACL), Altera Corp.(ALTR), American Express(AXP), Avaya(AV), BellSouth(BLS), Hasbro(HAS), Kraft Foods(KFT), Merck(MRK), Pitney Bowes(PBI), Quest Diagnostics(DGX), SanDisk(SNDK), Schering-Plough(SGP), Texas Instuments(TXN), 3M Co.(MMM)

Tues. - Aflac Inc.(AFL), Altria Group(MO), Amazon.com(AMZN), AmerisourceBergen(ABC), AT&T(T), BJ Services(BJS), Boyd Gaming(BYD), Burlington Northern(BNI), Chicago Merc(CME), Chubb Corp.(CB), Colgate-Palmolive(CL), Corning Inc.(GLW), Countrywide Financial(CFC), Diebold(DBD), Energen(EGN), ENSCO(ESV), Flextronics(FLEX), Legg Mason(LM), Lexmark(LXK), Lincare(LNCR), Liner Tech(LLTC), Lockheed Martin(LMT), McDonald’s(MCD), Nabors Industries(NBR), Murphy Oil(MUR), Omnicom Group(OMC), Panera Bread(PNRA), QLogic(QLGC), Smith Intl.(SII), Stanley Works(SWK), United Parcel(UPS), Weyerhaeuser(WY), Whirlpool(WHR), Xilinx(XLNX)

Wed. - Allegheny Tech(ATI), Anheuser-Busch(BUD), Baidu.com(BIDU), Biogen Idec(BIIB), Black & Decker(BDK), Boeing(BA), Cadence Design(CDN), ConocoPhillips(COP), Diamond Offshore(DO), Express Scripts(ESRX), General Motors(GM), Intuitive Surgical(ISRG), Kimberly-Clark(KMB), Lucent Tech(LU), Norfolk Southern(NSC), PF Chang’s(PFCB), Phelps Dodge(PD), Pulte Homes(PHM), Ruth’s Chris(RUTH), Symantec(SYMC), Terex Corp.(TEX), Under Armour(UARM), Wellpoint(WLP), Zimmer Holdings(ZMH)

Thur. - Aetna(AET), American Power(APCC), Andarko Petroleum(APC), Apache Corp.(APA), Beazer Homes(BZH), Boston Scientific(BSX), Bowater(BOW), Bristol-Myers(BMY), CB Richard Ellis(CBG), Celgene(CELG), Chesapeake Energy(CHK), Cleveland-Cliffs(CLF), Comcast(CMCSA), Cummins(CMI), Deckers Outdoor(DECK), Dow Chemical(DOW), Ethan Allen(ETH), Exxon Mobil(XOM), F5 Networks(FFIV), Fortune Brands(FO), Garmin Ltd.(GRMN), Harrah’s(HET), Kellogg(K), Kerr-McGee(KMG), L-3 Communications(LLL), Lear Corp.(LEA), Massey Energy(MEE), MBIA Inc.(MBI), McAfee(MFE), McKesson Corp.(MCK), Monster Worldwide(MNST), Newmont Mining(NEM), Northrop Grumman(NOC), OfficeMax(OMX), OSI Pharma(OSIP), Rackable Systems(RACK), Raytheon(RTN), Royal Caribbean(RCL), Sohu.com(SOHU), Starwood Hotels(HOT), THQ Inc.(THQI), Tidewater(TDW), XM Satellite(XMSR)

Fri. - American Tower(AMT), Baker Hughes(BHI), Centex(CTX), Chevron(CVX), Dolby Labs(DLB), Ingersoll-Rand(IR), Ingram Micro(IM), Multimedia Games(MGAM), Office Depot, Western Digital(WDC), Whole Foods(WFMI)

Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:

Mon. - None of note

Tue. - None of note

Wed. - None of note

Thur. - None of note

Fri. - None of note

Tuesday, July 18, 2006

BA-OSX- trade 7-18

Market View:

Additional noise war speculation on Oil Services but rather watch the 200 day mva—as a support level.

Like this short to be continued but would like to avoid the war noise that can be distracting.

Regardless…watch the OIH closer to 200 day mva of 138

BA: a daily buy on technical signals watch for trading pullbacks before adding to accumulate and build on strength. – News helps the case but a substance trade based on indicators as well.

Deeply oversold near-term, 50 day at 83 as resistance level. Accumulate close to 74 level.

BTU: further short for a quarterly play…extended and quick entry. Exit on shorts.

Wednesday, July 12, 2006

Thoughts

Brokers and Metals as short candidates here? - Following up on yesterdays daily observations... Continue to press the short or modestly suggest to
Staples like WAG, CVS, K -- strong recent run...do you add to long here or that was a short lived recovery. Or utilities which continue to appear as buy....

Markets appear to be back to 50 day mva. (SPX, RUT, RMC and EFAE) with a overbought daily. Perhaps setting up for a downtrend/consolidation towards 200 day.

Maybe further consolidation can give the oversold weekly a timely entry point...for another recovery.RIMM- looks like a short to 61 before being a buy. CFC- looks weak.

Thursday, July 06, 2006

Beta Custom Index : Click to enlarge

Market Outlook

Markets have recovered from mid -June lows as most indices are at or approach their 50 day mva. Appling the 50-day mva as resistance level.

Near-term momentum is becoming overbought

Not a timely entry point to trade long. Would rather trim long positions and favor short trades at these levels.

I was watching from the beta related index as key indicators approaching 50-day mva.-

Custom beta index composed of : OSX HUI, XBD and SOX illustrates a better picture for the markets.

In addition, Mid, Small and emerging market indices share a similar pattern of approaching 50-day mva from June recovery lows.

Risk/Reward: appears to be stuck in the middle: May Highs vs. June lows.


In broader terms adding to long ideas is not timely
Can place short using the 200 day as a targe exit point

Saturday, June 24, 2006

THE BIG PICTURE: (secular trend review)

http://www.pring.com/articles/return.pdf

  • Average bear market last on average 18 months with a price loss of an average 28%.
  • A projected 28% loss = SPX at 940.
  • S&P has not broke below its 12 month MVA- which should confirm the end of leadership intact.
  • Market should play catch up on the downside.

Basically, Pring argues that the multi-decade peak in optimism that occurred in 2000 has not yet been worked off. He writes: "These types of secular market turning points have always been followed by massive bear markets like the one that developed in 1929, or multi-year trading ranges as witnessed in the 1900/ 1921 and 1966/81 periods."

But Pring does add this caveat: "It's important to understand that while the position of the long-term indicators looks extremely ominous from a primary trend point of view, they have not been confirmed with a negative 12-month moving average crossover by the S&P [500]. And until that happened, assume the primary uptrend is intact."

Pring looks monthly closing prices, and right now he calculates the 12-month moving average will be about 1255 at month's end.

Graham was a value investor. He looked for well-run companies with low-priced stocks. Among his selection criteria:

* The company must not be a financial or technology concern. Graham favored more basic industry-type companies. Followers of Buffett, who know of his aversion to technology companies, now see where that aversion originated.

* The company needs annual revenue of at least $340 million. He wanted the predictability of developed companies, not young, developing ones.

* A current ratio (current assets divided by current liabilities) of 2 or more. This is a measure of liquidity. The more liquid a company is, the less likely it is to get into financial trouble.

* For industrial companies, long-term debt must not exceed net current assets (current assets minus current liabilities). This too is a measure of liquidity.

* Companies must increase their earnings per share by at least 30% over a ten-year period, and EPS must not have been negative for any year within the last five years. These are companies that have proved themselves over time.

* The P/E ratio, based on the greater of the current P/E or the P/E using average earnings over the last three fiscal years, must not exceed 15. Stocks with moderate P/Es are more defensive investments by nature.

* The price-to-book ratio multiplied by the P/E cannot be greater than 22. Graham liked tangible assets, and this is a measure of them balanced against the stock price

Wednesday, June 21, 2006

2nd quarter close

Looking for gold related and brokers offering some trading oppertunities here.

Semi and Biotech might be themes worth revisiting down the road.

Upcomming Fed meeting and quarter end for funds can send mixed messages.

Stock specfic themes are critical given uncertaintiy of market direction and lack of trend.

Interested to see how to postion portfolios for First 2 weeks in July.

Tuesday, June 13, 2006

Quick Market Summary

More correction to continue with support closer to October lows
Various daily momentum signals that can be misleading to the general theme despite trading opportunity.
Earnings can trigger or shift the general trend but from technical standpoint correction should continue.
Shorting opportunities persist on strength until a significant signs of a recovery.

Friday, June 09, 2006

Spikes and Turnarounds

Very violtile day as seen by the spikes in the VIX - highest reading in this sell off. High around 20. A shift in the market appearing to
Argument remains weather a low vs the low.-- but regardless a rollercoster of a ride on June 8th. A guideness for resitance level: 50 day avg as for most names in the market.
Plenty of trading oppertunites especially in names which have significantly corrected in this cycle. OSX and HUI. Near-term buy cycles beging to
Commodity related themes and other cyclical places. Also other higher beta related themes that can see a bounce include biotech, semis and brokers.
Maintain tight stops, to manage violitily by narrowing timeframe.

Sunday, June 04, 2006

Growth areas in future

Areas and groups to explore in next easing cycle:

alternative energy, water purification, genomics, nanotechnology, voice recognition, homeland security, China, emerging markets and pandemic treatments.

Gold vs S&P relative performance chart mirrors closely the US 10 Year trasury yeild performance.

Therefore, higher gold = higher rates = lower spx returns.